Adam Man's Week 5 NFL Preview

Holy crap... it's week 5 already? Seriously? The season sure flies by fast. It's also getting to the point where I'm looking at a Denver/Tampa game and pooping my pants at the thought of predicting it. I seriously looked at the sheet for my office pool early this week and there were 2 and a half picks I felt comfortable picking... and one was the result of blatant homerism. Last week I managed to go 8-5 (counting my pick of Pittsburgh in my office pool, even though I didn't post it here). Considering almost nobody saw Kansas City, Chicago, or Washington coming, I guess I shouldn't feel too bad. Seriously Denver... Kansas City? Shameful. Anyway, let's get on with it:

NFL Headline of the Week:
"Travis Henry arrested following alleged coke deal"
Sadly, there was no mention of how many illegitimate children Henry sired during the bust.

Runner Up:
"FedEx Field must give deaf patrons 'aural content'"
I know I could always use some more oral content. What's that? Oh right, THAT spelling. Apparently the Redskins are expected to hand out lyric sheets to the music played in the stadium. An excerpt: "T-T-T-TOTALLY DUUUUDE"

2nd Runner Up:
"Report: Cowboys tell 'Pacman' to keep low profile"
This fits nicely into our "least surprising headline" category. It's pretty bad when your boss asks you to lay low even when you haven't done anything.

Week 5 Picks

Bears @ Lions (+4)
The Bears are coming off a huge win against the Eagles, one that legitimizes them as a team to respect this season. But the Lions are coming off an even bigger win. They've finally cut ties with Matt Millen. The dark cloud over Detroit has been lifted! And the sun shines through to reveal Rudi Johnson as their new starting RB! RUDI! RUDI! RUDI! Meanwhile, Kyle "Neck Beard" Orton is still the Bear's QB, and that's never a good thing.
Prediction: Lions, 27-24
Fantasy Love: Matt Forte, John Kitna, Charles Johnson
Fantasy Hate: Neck Beard, Rudi Johnson (Bears run D is GOOD)

Falcons @ Green Bay (-5)
It looks like I might have gotten off the Aaron Rodgers bus just in time. Separated shoulders are never good when your job is to throw stuff really far. Still, he's a tough kid and actually threw a long bomb for a touchdown AFTER the injury last week. Atlanta is doing all the right things to grow as a team, but if Rodgers plays, it just won't be enough. If he's out... I have no faith in Matt Flynn, based on the track record of other LSU QB's.
Prediction: Green Bay, 27-13
Fantasy Love: Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Michael Turner
Fantasy Hate: Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Mike Jenkins

Chargers @ Dolphins (+6)
This game scares me a bit... since the Chargers SHOULD win. Miami is coming off the bye after demolishing the Pats, who nobody gave them a chance against. San Diego is a bit banged up and have had some bad luck in weird games this year. Everyone who's watched Tomlinson play say he's not the same guy with his injury, and the game is a homer for Miami. Checking... checking... nope. Still not enough to take the Fins.
Prediction: Chargers, 23-17
Fantasy Love: Tomlinson, Philip Rivers, Ronnie Brown
Fantasy Hate: Ricky Williams, Tedd Ginn Jr.

Seahawks @ Giants (-6)
That squeal of joy you heard last week? That was Matt Hasselbeck when somebody told him Deion Branch and Bobby Engram should be playing this week. The fact that he won't have to rely on Billy McMullen and Courtney Taylor and some dude named Bumpus is sweet music to his years. The Giants, meanwhile, will play without their talented #1 receiver, because he punched Tom Coughlin's dog or something. This seems like the classic setup for an upset this season, plus I want all teams to get a loss by week 7 so we don't have to ever see Mercury Morris again.
Prediction: Seattle, 24-21
Fantasy Love: Matt Hasselbeck, Brandon Jacobs, Amani Toomer, Julius Jones
Fantasy Hate: Eli Manning, Bobby Engram, TJ Duckett

Redskins @ Eagles (EVEN)
Just last week I said Washington was this year's version of the Giants last year. Well, not anymore. After watching them push Dallas around and take them apart, I'm convinced that when Jason Campbell is on his game (which won't be EVERY week), this team has great potential. Couple that with Westbrook being injured if not out, and the Eagles' patchwork receiving corps struggling... and the NFC East just got even more interesting.
Prediction: Washington, 28-23
Fantasy Love: Matt Hasselbeck, Brandon Jacobs, Amani Toomer, Julius Jones
Fantasy Hate: Eli Manning, Bobby Engram, TJ Duckett

Chiefs @ Panthers (-8)
I'll give Larry Johnson credit... I thought he was dead in the water, and he showed us all just how bad the Denver run defense is. He won't have it so easy against the Panthers though, and things will go back to normal for KC. With their poor run-D, I could see DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart each getting 80+ yards and a TD.
Prediction: Panthers, 34-19
Fantasy Love: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Dwayne Bowe
Fantasy Hate: Damon Huard, Larry Johnson, Steve Smith

Titans @ Ravens (+1.5)
The Ravens started the season off 2-0 against really bad teams, and I hadn't seen them play yet, so I assumed that they were who I thought they were. Well, after their strong showing on Monday night, I'm gonna let 'em off the hook. Joe Flacco is making mistakes, but he's also making plays, and that's what you get with a rookie at the helm. This game is going to decided on which Defense scores more, as they're two of the best in the league. I think the Titans will go far this year, but their unbeaten streak stops here
Prediction: Ravens, 16-13
Fantasy Love: Tennessee DEF, Baltimore DEF, Chris Johnson, Le'Ron McClain
Fantasy Hate: Derrick Mason, Willis McGahee, Kerry Collins, LenDale White

Colts @ Texans (+5)
It's getting more and more clear that to pick well this season, you need to pick upsets. This is another game that I feel will go that way. Houston is way better than their 0-3 record, and Indy just isn't the same team this season. Steve Slaton is going to run all over their pourus run-D, and the young Texans defense will force Peyton into some uncharacteristic mistakes. Watch out, the AFC South is getting topsy-turvy.
Prediction: Houston, 21-17
Fantasy Love: Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Joseph Addai
Fantasy Hate: Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning

Buccaneers @ Broncos (-3)
I feel that the embarrassment of last week's loss and the home crowd behind them will be enough to push Denver on top here. It also helps that Tampa's pass D is nothing to get excited about. I see a big game for Brandon Marshall, back up in double-digit receptions.
Prediction: Denver, 31-20
Fantasy Love: Baby T.O., Jay Cutler, Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn,
Fantasy Hate: Eddie Royal, Antonio Bryant, Selvin Young

Bengals @ Cowboys (-11)
The same formula as Denver holds here. The Bengals will either have a hurt Carson Palmer or a healthy Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, and either way the Dallas DEF is excited. Facing one of the worst run D's in the NFL, MBIII and Felix Jones should both have a field day, though Cincy's pass D has actually played well, and I'd expect more check-downs to Witten than bombs to TO this week. That should go over well.
Prediction: Cowboys, 34-17
Fantasy Love: MBIII, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, Chad Ocho Cinco (I'm callin it!)
Fantasy Hate: Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, Terrell Owens

Bills @ Cardinals (+3.5)
Here's probably the easiest game to convince yourself to pick an upset on... but I'm not biting. The Bills finally have a balanced offense, and their defense clamps down on the pass. With Boldin still full of cobwebs, I don't think the Cards break through here. They'll run the ball well enough to keep it close though. This feels like a good time to mention I'm starting both Lee Evans and Josh Reed on the same fantasy team.
Prediction: Bills, 24-20
Fantasy Love: Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald
Fantasy Hate: Anquan Boldin, Josh Reed

Patriots @ 49ers (+6)
Despite what I saw two weeks ago, I still have confidence in the Pats coaching staff. With two weeks to stare down San Fran, I gotta believe they've come up with a way to move the ball in this game. My prediction? Lots of Lo-Mo. He was injured for a while and hasn't done much this year... just enough so you forget about him. But I think he's perfect for this game, with a balance of deep throws to Moss. It's important that they start testing Cassel's arm and get Moss into the game. Two more weeks of short outs sailing over his head, and you can kiss Randy the Teammate goodbye. You can already see it in his eyes. New England pulls it out because they have to... and because I can't wrap my brain around "San Francisco: 3-1"
Prediction: Patriots, 27-20
Fantasy Love: Lo-Mo, Randy Moss, Frank Gore, Bryant Johnson
Fantasy Hate: Isaac Bruce, Sammy Morris, J.T. O'Sullivan

Steelers @ Jaguars (EVEN)
The Steelers came across as very vulnerable after Monday's game against Baltimore. Now that their offense hinges on the performance of Mewelde Moore, and they face a much better offense, we might reach a breaking point. To Pittsburgh's credit, their aggressive defense won that game, but I see them falling in a close one here with Jax's running game finding a way to control the clock.
Prediction: Jaguars, 20-17
Fantasy Love: Fred Taylor, Mo-Jo Drew, Santonio Holmes
Fantasy Hate: Mewelde Moore, Ben Roethlisberger

Vikings @ Saints (-3.5)
Don't take anything away from the Vikings progress for losing last week, that's a very good Titans team that beat them. So good in fact that they're capable of giving Guss Frerrotte stigmata. The Saints have played well considering their injured offensive starters, but I see that finally catching up with them this week against a quality defense. Adrian Peterson is finally off the injury report, and I see him having a big game here, both rushing and receiving.
Prediction: Vikings, 31-21
Fantasy Love: Purple Jesus, Drew Brees, Bernard Berrian
Fantasy Hate: Lance Moore, Reggie Bush, Sidney Rice

Credibility Check
Last Week: 8-5
Season: 35-25
Predictions I Almost Nailed: Saints 31-28 (Actual: 31-17), Panthers 24-14 (Actual: 24-9), Bills 34-10 (Actual: 31-14)