Now, I had to give the Titans more points, because I have to be honest with myself. The Titans are good, and the Colts...well, they're not as good. A paper thin defense has plagued them throughout this season, snapping against running backs like a training bra on Elizabeth Hasselbeck. They looked unbelievably undisciplined, and having a part-time coach doesn't really help the matter.
Tim Hasselbeck gets to play with these. Any time he wants. I know, life isn't fair.Penalties, a poor defensive scheme (not to the fault of Ron Meeks, more Polian and Dungy), and injuries have turned the Colts defense into a nightmare. Any good team knows how weak we are at stuffing the run. The Jags did it, the Bears did it, and now we're going against a team who has better backs than both those teams. Not to mention the Colts' offense has been underproductive and they'll be facing one of the toughest defenses in the game.
So how exactly do we even score points, let alone win? Easy.
1. We'll make Kerry Collins beat us. Give up the 70 yard fluke touchdown pass, focus on the run. I expect Lendale White to be the main guy they'll pound us with for the first half, and then once the team's been banged up a little, give the ball to explosive Chris Johnson. The Colts should be scheming against the run unashamedly. Don't even play any cornerbacks...replace them with Jamey Richard and Tony Ugoh on the line or something. Ok, maybe not that extreme, but when the Colts are told that their defense can't stop the run, they typically do things such as...stopping the run. Larry Johnson was supposed to run all over them in the playoffs two years ago. I think they held him under 50 yards.
2. It's Monday Night Football. Cleveland did it to New York earlier, but there hasn't been a massive upset since. Only New England over Denver last week really compares in the least, but the Broncos are overrated anyway. The NFL thrives on big wins in big matchups, and that's what will be delivered.
3. The Titans are overconfident. They should be 5-1, but a blown call against the Ravens helped them win. The same Ravens who Indy blew out just two weeks ago. Those two teams are very similar in playing style, and need their defense to hold up for their offense to have a chance. The Titans haven't given up more than 17 points this season. If the Colts can get a couple quick touchdowns and make Tennessee play come-from-behind, their offense will be in an unfamiliar situation. The Colts, while not great at rattling quarterbacks, take better advantage of those quarterbacks once rattled than almost any other team.
4. Back to the overconfidence thing. The Colts are underdogs, big time. The Colts haven't been an underdog in an AFC South game in years. The Titans haven't gotten used to being the overwhelming favorites. It seems in football that as soon as teams start getting touted as one of the best, they drop a game intentionally to make everyone doubt them. It also seems that the Colts do best when they're under the radar, when everyone counts them out.
5. The "it" factor. It's impossible to explain, but the Colts just have it. Things wouldn't feel right in the world if the Colts didn't win. I've been telling myself and other people this season that the Colts just love dramatics, and I truly believe that. The Colts have to win, which is why they will.
6. Peyton Manning. The dude's not about to go to 3-4. I can guarantee you he's been studying twice as much tape as usual and even has plans for the Titans' practice squad. Is he past his prime? Maybe, maybe not. The next 5-10 years will show us that. But regardless, he's still Peyton Manning and he's still the smartest player in football. What it comes down to is that Manning has the ability to lock into a team's defense so well that he eventually stops having to think. He just calls the play, audibles 7 times, snaps and throws. Manning has a great chance of doing this tonight.
7. Indy knows Tennessee very well. Yes, this means Tennessee also knows Indy very well, but I still think this gives the Colts the advantage. In a matchup of brains against brawn, brawn always wins if they execute correctly. There are several key elements different in Tennessee's offense and defense this season, but football teams don't completely change from one season to the next. There are still familiar elements to the Titans' game that the Colts know how to see and shut down, and once those holes are plugged, it gives them more time to focus on other parts of the game they might not be as strong at.
8. Discipline. While the Colts looked awful against Green Bay with the calls against them every three plays, that's probably one of the biggest things they worked on in practice this past week. I expect to see smarter play at the line and far less penalties. Also, if the referees are anything on the Colts' side tonight, half of those won't exist. Yes, I do believe there were some bad calls against the Colts this season...in fact, many of them. It's still no excuse though, as even without the botched calls Indy's still got too many penalties.
9. Bob Sanders is out. Why is this a good thing? Sanders may have been able to play, but in a crucial divisional game to stay above .500, he's being sat. To me, this means Dungy has confidence that the defense can fare without him. That, and Melvin Bullitt has done just fine in his place.
10. It's just going to happen like I said. The Colts are coming in to this game overlooked, and they're going to come out to ESPN headlines of "Titan-Sized Upset" or something stupid like that.
Seriously, just watch the game. Colts win big, no doubt in my mind.
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