When do you draft A-Rod now?

FANTASY BASEBALL ALERT!!!

Oh yes, it's that time of year. Spring training has just begun and invites to fantasy leagues are being sent out. The last of the free agents are signing and in a few short weeks, major league rosters will be finalized. But what about your roster? Those of you with the number one pick in your draft this year will have one less superstar to consider. As if being the center of yet another steroid scandal hasn't been bad enough, Alex Rodriguez needs to have surgery on his hip and will be out at least 10 weeks. At least. So the question is, is A-Rod now a second round pick? A third? And furthermore, who now goes first in the draft?

"Oh Red Sox fans..."

There are obviously a bunch of factors to consider. Will he be back in the beginning of May or will his rehab take longer? Will the power be there immediately or will it take until July for him to start racking up home runs? Will he risk stealing bases and re-injuring the hip? (He had 18 thefts last season.) That's two of the five categories right there. That leaves average, runs batted in and hits. Now you also need to look at the position he plays. By my accounts, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Evan Longoria should all be taken before Rodriguez. You could even consider Chipper Jones just because of the great batting average. After that however, third base really drops off although a lot of "experts" are high on that kid Chris Davis from the Rangers. So putting all of that together, there's no real reason to take A-Rod in the first two rounds.

But here's the X-factor. What if Alex Rodriguez has been on steroids this whole time? AND, will he try to take HGH to help in his recovery and risk getting caught? For the rest of his career, he will be under a microscope. Now this isn't the time or the place to get into how he was essentially thrown under the bus by having his name released from supposed confidential tests. (Are we ever going to see those other 103 names?) But if you believe him when he said he stopped taking the banned substances before he played for the Yankees, well, you're just a glass full kinda guy/gal. You might be the person to take him with your second pick. Me? I'm shying away from him altogether. Plus he bangs Madonna. Ewwwww.

Finally, you have to factor in the draft process. If you've taken an outfielder and a starting pitcher already, and it's late in the third round? You might be more inclined to take a chance. Also, are you in a snake draft or auction league? Luckily for us in the fantasy baseball world, this announcement came early enough to prepare a strategy.

So now that he's not first pick/round material, who looks like a solid choice? The consensus choice for the top five, in no particular order are David Wright, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. All upper echelon talents to be sure. At first glance you could make a case for any one of them especially since only two of them play the same position. But take a closer look at those names. Now, remember how Bud Selig is big ol' pile of suckage. All but one of those guys has their March calenders filled with a little something extra besides spring training.

The World Baseball Classic.

Take a quick look at the stats of major league players from three years ago that participated in the WBC. Notice something a little odd? Maybe at bats are down? Hmmm? Power numbers not looking so hot?

Albert Pujols was the only one of the top five candidates to say nope.com (copyright Kevin and Bean) this year. And his stats won't suffer because of it. Sure Hanley Ramirez is 25 years old, but come early August, he's going to be feeling more fatigued than Pujols. Yeah, Wright, Braun and Reyes are all young too, but for me, Pujols is the answer. No one has been more consistent than the Cardinals first basemen. Plus, you'd have to think that by the time you pick again, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira and possibly Lance Berkman will all be off the board.

Or don't listen to me. Whatever. Join a league with me and see what happens. Oh, and since this is a blog, I'm obligated by the Blogging Governing Body to mention Chris Brown and Rihanna. Oh Breezy...

UPDATE: It's now being reported that A-Rod also has a torn labrum and if he gets surgery, he'll be out for four months. So yeah...10th round?

Now things get interesting - Part Deux

Alright kids, time for some expert National League analysis from yours truly. Yeah, since none of you believe that, Adam Man has thankfully provided some insight into the National League Central race. Therefore, I will merely glaze over the only division in baseball with six teams. Less work for me! Seriously though, I blame TBS not having any damn Braves games on anymore for my lack of NL knowledge. I know the Bill Engvall show and House of Payne are quality programs and all but still. Oh wait, all their original programming is complete crap! Geez, next thing you know they'll give Frank Caliendo his own show...

NL East:Philadelphia Phillies

They've been in the top 3-4 in the entire league in run differential all year. They are one of three teams that have a winning record on the road. Also, having Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins in your lineup doesn't hurt. Brad Lidge has performed very well for Charlie Manuel going 21 for 21 in save opportunities. Unfortunately, after Cole Hamels, their rotation is kind of horrific. You know, horrific in the way that we had to see Britney Spears' girl parts every time she got out of a car for months at a time. (For those of you who don't read What Would Tyler Durden Do, I'll save you the feeling of mace in the eyes...it didn't look good down there.) Adam Eaton? Brett Myers? Yikes. I don't know how well Joe Blanton will fit into the equation but if Hamels misses more than a couple of starts, they are in trouble. But I'm assuming he'll stay relatively healthy, and thus fend of the Mets and Marlins (and Braves?). New York is riding a hot streak right now but they don't hit behind Santana and besides Mike Pelfry, they're rotation approaches "Spears bathing suit area" levels as well. Now with Wagner's shoulder becoming a problem, the last season at Shea most likely won't get extended into October. I have a couple of friends who are diehard Mets fans and they wanted to blow the team up before Willie Randolph was fired and just start over with Wright, Reyes, Pelfry, Santana and Church. They might get their wish in the offseason. Conveniently, Philly and NY start a three game series tonight, so we'll see what happens. And regardless of where Florida ends up finishing, it's amazing what they've done with a payroll lower than one year of A-rod's salary. Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are scary good.

NL Central:Chicago Cubs

Again, go back to Adam Man's post about the Central but with Soriano coming back, that lineup is unstoppable. Which means...

Wild Card:Milwaukee Brewers

Sabathia pushes them over the edge. St. Louis won't be able to compete. But that leads me to...

NL West:St. Louis Cardinals

Yeah, I said it. The West is embarrasing. There should be a rule where if no team in a division finishes above .500, they forfeit their spot in the postseason. Pujols, Ankiel and Ludwick are having phenomenal seasons even though their rotation is extremely suspect. When Kyle Lohse is keeping you afloat, you may be on borrowed time. Adam Wainwright is coming back which will help too. You could have the Mets or the Marlins here either and I wouldn't be upset. But since none of that is actually happening...

NL West(seriously):Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado and San Diego have been HUGE disappointments. Just unforgivably bad this year. Everyone knew the Giants were going to suck but at least they don't have Bonds anymore. The Dodgers have a nice young core of players in Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier so it's not a complete surprise that they're "contending." Furcal going down really, really hurts though. They'll miss Saito a lot as well. Clayton Kershaw was sort of a bust in his first stint in the majors and didn't have the impact LA was looking for. Billingsley, Lowe and Koruda don't strike fear into a lot of batters' hearts, but they've been serviceable. Now Arizona has two of the top pitchers in all of baseball. The team got off to that great start, but they're bats just went dead. Like Eddie Murphy's career dead. Remember when guys like Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were hitting the cover off the ball? This division is so bad though that Haren and Webb can carry the team to a first place finish. Also calling Max Scherzer back up couldn't hurt.

Therefore:

Chicago vs. Arizona

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee

I think the Brewers might be able slip past the Phillies because of the Sheets/Sabathia combo. Philly can't answer that. Chicago protected themselves by getting Harden to counter Haren and Webb. There's going to be some great pitcher's duels. To the awards!

Rookie of the Year:Edinson Volquez, Cin

Volquez will get heavy Cy Young consideration. He's having an amazing year so far, but like his trade counterpart Josh Hamilton, I'm not sure if he'll be able to finish his first full year as strongly as he started it. Either way, he's the clear cut favorite. Jair Jurrjens of Atlanta is having a nice year as well but Volquez and his 9.46 K/9 ratio is ridiculous. Pencil it in now.

*EDIT*-A reader pointed out that Volquez is indeed not a rookie anymore. Although he never pitched more than 50 innings in a season, he had a combined 80 innings pitched from his time with the Rangers. If he's not in consideration, I'd go with either Geovany Soto or Jay Bruce. Bruce got off to an insane start, cooled off but is starting to hit again and is currently on an 11 game hitting streak. Soto has done a great job behind the plate for the Cubs. Right now, he has 16 home runs and an .849 OPS. Joey Votto is also having a good rookie year.*EDIT*

Manager of the Year:Ned Yost, Mil

Does Lou Pinella deserve MOY honors just because he didn't screw up? The Cubs are cursed and whatnot, great, I get it. But they clearly had one of the best, if not the best, team on paper coming into the year. Pinella is a great manager (but leave the rapping to Rick Ross and such, okay Lou?) and I'm not taking anything away from the job he's done this year. But Yost had more on his plate in my opinion. I'll have to see if the different way he handles the fifth spot in the rotation works out. And of course, if Milwaukee falters down the stretch again and miss the playoffs completely, the hardware will go to Lil' Lou.

Cy Young:Dan Haren, Ari

He is at the top of every stat category. Every single one. I'm not kidding. His BAA and OPSA is first in the NL at .209 and .573 respectively. He's first in WHIP at .95. Get the point? His teammate Webb is also having a great year. Tim Lincecum has been the lone bright spot on the Giants and strikes dudes out like crazy. I mentioned Volquez already and Ben Sheets might get some votes as well. But this is Haren's year. Just filthy.

Most Valuable Player:Albert Pujols, Stl

And we get another year of, "Do we vote for Most Productive Player or Most Valuable Player?" Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols are having insane years (again). Pujols has the higher average and rarely strikes out. Berkman's power numbers are better and he actually has 15 steals already. That's almost not fair. They are a wash defensively too. Chase Utley is a tremendous all around player and has the stats to make an argument for MVP. But he still has great hitters in the lineup with him and isn't the most valuable guy by definition when compared to Berkman or Pujols. The problem is, Houston has no shot of making the postseason barring some insanity. Chipper Jones has to be mentioned but again, Atlanta most likely won't be playing in October. Yeah, he won't hit .400 but I don't know if anyone will ever again. That brings me back to Albert though. He's got the stats and his team will be contending through September. They are only 2 back behind Chicago right now and are tied for the Wild Card with Milwaukee. But I just don't see those younger guys in St. Louis' lineup being as productive without Pujols there.

Whew! That's a whole lotta baseball coverage right thur. I wonder what trades will be made in the next nine days. Will any superstars be on the move or just role players that GMs need to complete their rosters? I'll just keep my ears to the ground and listen to Peter Gammons whenever possible. I suggest you do the same.