Now things get interesting - Part Deux

Alright kids, time for some expert National League analysis from yours truly. Yeah, since none of you believe that, Adam Man has thankfully provided some insight into the National League Central race. Therefore, I will merely glaze over the only division in baseball with six teams. Less work for me! Seriously though, I blame TBS not having any damn Braves games on anymore for my lack of NL knowledge. I know the Bill Engvall show and House of Payne are quality programs and all but still. Oh wait, all their original programming is complete crap! Geez, next thing you know they'll give Frank Caliendo his own show...

NL East:Philadelphia Phillies

They've been in the top 3-4 in the entire league in run differential all year. They are one of three teams that have a winning record on the road. Also, having Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins in your lineup doesn't hurt. Brad Lidge has performed very well for Charlie Manuel going 21 for 21 in save opportunities. Unfortunately, after Cole Hamels, their rotation is kind of horrific. You know, horrific in the way that we had to see Britney Spears' girl parts every time she got out of a car for months at a time. (For those of you who don't read What Would Tyler Durden Do, I'll save you the feeling of mace in the eyes...it didn't look good down there.) Adam Eaton? Brett Myers? Yikes. I don't know how well Joe Blanton will fit into the equation but if Hamels misses more than a couple of starts, they are in trouble. But I'm assuming he'll stay relatively healthy, and thus fend of the Mets and Marlins (and Braves?). New York is riding a hot streak right now but they don't hit behind Santana and besides Mike Pelfry, they're rotation approaches "Spears bathing suit area" levels as well. Now with Wagner's shoulder becoming a problem, the last season at Shea most likely won't get extended into October. I have a couple of friends who are diehard Mets fans and they wanted to blow the team up before Willie Randolph was fired and just start over with Wright, Reyes, Pelfry, Santana and Church. They might get their wish in the offseason. Conveniently, Philly and NY start a three game series tonight, so we'll see what happens. And regardless of where Florida ends up finishing, it's amazing what they've done with a payroll lower than one year of A-rod's salary. Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are scary good.

NL Central:Chicago Cubs

Again, go back to Adam Man's post about the Central but with Soriano coming back, that lineup is unstoppable. Which means...

Wild Card:Milwaukee Brewers

Sabathia pushes them over the edge. St. Louis won't be able to compete. But that leads me to...

NL West:St. Louis Cardinals

Yeah, I said it. The West is embarrasing. There should be a rule where if no team in a division finishes above .500, they forfeit their spot in the postseason. Pujols, Ankiel and Ludwick are having phenomenal seasons even though their rotation is extremely suspect. When Kyle Lohse is keeping you afloat, you may be on borrowed time. Adam Wainwright is coming back which will help too. You could have the Mets or the Marlins here either and I wouldn't be upset. But since none of that is actually happening...

NL West(seriously):Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado and San Diego have been HUGE disappointments. Just unforgivably bad this year. Everyone knew the Giants were going to suck but at least they don't have Bonds anymore. The Dodgers have a nice young core of players in Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier so it's not a complete surprise that they're "contending." Furcal going down really, really hurts though. They'll miss Saito a lot as well. Clayton Kershaw was sort of a bust in his first stint in the majors and didn't have the impact LA was looking for. Billingsley, Lowe and Koruda don't strike fear into a lot of batters' hearts, but they've been serviceable. Now Arizona has two of the top pitchers in all of baseball. The team got off to that great start, but they're bats just went dead. Like Eddie Murphy's career dead. Remember when guys like Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were hitting the cover off the ball? This division is so bad though that Haren and Webb can carry the team to a first place finish. Also calling Max Scherzer back up couldn't hurt.

Therefore:

Chicago vs. Arizona

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee

I think the Brewers might be able slip past the Phillies because of the Sheets/Sabathia combo. Philly can't answer that. Chicago protected themselves by getting Harden to counter Haren and Webb. There's going to be some great pitcher's duels. To the awards!

Rookie of the Year:Edinson Volquez, Cin

Volquez will get heavy Cy Young consideration. He's having an amazing year so far, but like his trade counterpart Josh Hamilton, I'm not sure if he'll be able to finish his first full year as strongly as he started it. Either way, he's the clear cut favorite. Jair Jurrjens of Atlanta is having a nice year as well but Volquez and his 9.46 K/9 ratio is ridiculous. Pencil it in now.

*EDIT*-A reader pointed out that Volquez is indeed not a rookie anymore. Although he never pitched more than 50 innings in a season, he had a combined 80 innings pitched from his time with the Rangers. If he's not in consideration, I'd go with either Geovany Soto or Jay Bruce. Bruce got off to an insane start, cooled off but is starting to hit again and is currently on an 11 game hitting streak. Soto has done a great job behind the plate for the Cubs. Right now, he has 16 home runs and an .849 OPS. Joey Votto is also having a good rookie year.*EDIT*

Manager of the Year:Ned Yost, Mil

Does Lou Pinella deserve MOY honors just because he didn't screw up? The Cubs are cursed and whatnot, great, I get it. But they clearly had one of the best, if not the best, team on paper coming into the year. Pinella is a great manager (but leave the rapping to Rick Ross and such, okay Lou?) and I'm not taking anything away from the job he's done this year. But Yost had more on his plate in my opinion. I'll have to see if the different way he handles the fifth spot in the rotation works out. And of course, if Milwaukee falters down the stretch again and miss the playoffs completely, the hardware will go to Lil' Lou.

Cy Young:Dan Haren, Ari

He is at the top of every stat category. Every single one. I'm not kidding. His BAA and OPSA is first in the NL at .209 and .573 respectively. He's first in WHIP at .95. Get the point? His teammate Webb is also having a great year. Tim Lincecum has been the lone bright spot on the Giants and strikes dudes out like crazy. I mentioned Volquez already and Ben Sheets might get some votes as well. But this is Haren's year. Just filthy.

Most Valuable Player:Albert Pujols, Stl

And we get another year of, "Do we vote for Most Productive Player or Most Valuable Player?" Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols are having insane years (again). Pujols has the higher average and rarely strikes out. Berkman's power numbers are better and he actually has 15 steals already. That's almost not fair. They are a wash defensively too. Chase Utley is a tremendous all around player and has the stats to make an argument for MVP. But he still has great hitters in the lineup with him and isn't the most valuable guy by definition when compared to Berkman or Pujols. The problem is, Houston has no shot of making the postseason barring some insanity. Chipper Jones has to be mentioned but again, Atlanta most likely won't be playing in October. Yeah, he won't hit .400 but I don't know if anyone will ever again. That brings me back to Albert though. He's got the stats and his team will be contending through September. They are only 2 back behind Chicago right now and are tied for the Wild Card with Milwaukee. But I just don't see those younger guys in St. Louis' lineup being as productive without Pujols there.

Whew! That's a whole lotta baseball coverage right thur. I wonder what trades will be made in the next nine days. Will any superstars be on the move or just role players that GMs need to complete their rosters? I'll just keep my ears to the ground and listen to Peter Gammons whenever possible. I suggest you do the same.

NL Central Second Half Preview: LET'S DO THIS

So the Scrobinator has gone ahead and given you a second half preview for the AL, the main league I ever pay attention to. What's a guy to do? Follow the headlines, that's what... and if you've been watching the transaction wire over the past few weeks, you know it's all about the NL Central. The ciphering of premier AL pitching to the "senior circuit" (which I assume they call the NL because Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux play there) has kept on going with the Harden/Sabathia deals. Let's look at the effect these trades may have on how the division that's tight at the top and flat out horrible at the bottom. In order of the current standings:

Cubbies (58-40):
The lovable losers are at it again, streaking out to the best NL record in the first half and doing it with style. How have they done it? The obvious answer is hitting. Going into today's action they're hitting .280/.357/.442 AS A TEAM, which is crazy-go-nuts, and leading the NL in all three. They're also tops in the NL in runs scored with 518, which is 26 ahead of the second-place Phillies (who swing a good piece of lumber themselves).

Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee are mashing as usual. The big surprise is rookie catcher Geovany Soto and his 16 dingers (my fantasy team would like to say domo arigato Mr. G. Soto). The kid slugged .652 over a full AAA season last year, so he could actually keep it up. Fukudome made a big slash early but his splits have gone down every month of the season, so you have to keep your expectations low for the rest of the season as he gets used to this side of the Pacific. The big wild card is Alfonoso Soriano coming back this week. Alfie had an insane May and a very good June before getting hurt. If he gets back in stride with his pre-injury pace, this team still hits with the best of 'em.

But we're talking trades, right? And the bad news for the rest of the division is that the team with the lowest BA against, 2nd lowest ERA, and 3rd lowest WHIP in the NL just picked up one James Richard Harden, who is scary good at pitching. It's impressive enough that they've been getting solid performances from Ryan "The Dump Truck" Dempster (11-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Kerry Wood (24 saves, 1.01 WHIP, 0 exploded body parts), and Ted Lilly (would you believe me if I told you he was top-10 in the NL in K's. Go ahead, look it up. I'll wait.... Back yet? Yeah I know, it's weird).

Throw in Zambrano and they've got 2 top-end pitchers, a few other solid rotation guys, a very good bullpen, and the best offense in the NL. There's a reason north-siders are so confident. I can't wait to see what's going to go horribly wrong to derail this. I've got 100:1 money down on a polio breakout in the clubhouse.

Milwaukee Brewers (56-43):
When the Brew-Crew started winning games last year, it was cute... novel... and nobody believed it would last. They faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs, but they stayed mostly in tact and the young players are developing. Ryan Braun is a grown-ass man, following up his insane rookie season with very good numbers again (.896 OPS). After a sluggish start, Prince Fielder's splits have been getting better and better all year. He won't reach 50 dingers again, but 35-40 are definitely in reach. JJ Hardy is having his best year yet and is EXPLODING in July, with a 1.173 OPS, 7 HRs, 15 runs, and 15 RBI. Then there's Corey Hart, who's been cosistent for the whole season. That's 4 guys between 24-26, hitting their stride in late July. The Brewers are young. The Brewers are good. This is not news to anyone. This IS the news:That's right, there's ANOTHER fat man in Wisconsin. The thought of these two men at the same complimentary buffet must have Marriott staff shaking in their boots all across the country. I love this trade for this team. Despite having the NL All-Star starting pitcher on their roster, they've been around the middle of the NL pack in all the major pitching categories. Manny Parra has pitched well, but he's walked a ton of batters and he's too young to depend on as your second best pitcher.

Now the 1-2 punch of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia backed up by Parra, Dave Bush, and Seth McClung, they have a group of pitchers they can feel okay about. They'd be in good shape if they could just start avoiding crappy ex-Red Sox pitchers. Seriously... Eric Gagne, Julian Tavarez, Jeff Suppan... what were you THINKING? But the fact they've stayed so close to the Cubs despite how dominant Chi-town's been statistically, and that they're getting better every month (currently 6 straight wins), means they've got a serious chance in this race.

St. Louis Cardinals (57-45):
The story of the year in the NL is how the Cards have stayed in a tough NL Central race despite having, as many love to point out, a fairly craptastical roster. Of course they still have Poo-Holes, and he is still one of the scariest hitters in baseball (.356/.468/.600), but they're also depending on a Molina brother, which is never a good sign. Sure they're 5th in the NL in runs, but do you know who's 4th? That's right, the Pirates of Pittsburgh... and that's not working out so hot for THEM. They're getting very respectable years out of a slew of guys: Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel are all OPS'ing over .800, plus Skip Shumaker and the before-mentioned Molina brother are over .750. The bats have come alive this year and that's carried this team.

The pitching on the other hand is not so hot. When your staff ace is Kyle Lohse, even with as great of a year as he's having, you probably don't have a great rotation. Brandon Looper, Joel Piniero, and Todd Wellemeyer round out the starters, with Mitchell Boggs getting some starts as well, and they haven't been pretty to watch. Ryan Franklin has filled the closer role admirably after Isringausen's fall from grace, and Russ Springer and Kyle McClellan have had great seasons with sub-3.00 ERA's, but the Cards still rank last in BAA by relievers and dead last in bullpen WHIP.

And there's the problem. In a division where all the contenders can hit, the Cards were the only team that didn't go out and get another proven starter to bolster their rotation. And if Harden and Sabathia can help quiet some of the career years St. Louis's hitters are having, the Cards could be out of the picture by late August. They can only hope acquiring a highly touted A's pitcher will work out as well for the Cubs as it did for them with Mulder.

Cincinnati Reds (49-53):
They've got some great young talent both with pitchers and hitters, but all that talent still needs to mature. If they can continue to develop Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, hang onto Brandon Philips, and somehow convince Dusty Baker that it doesn't matter if Adam Dunn is hitting .237 as long as he's OPS'ing .934, they could have a formidable lineup in short time.

Pitching is a different issue for the Reds. Edinson Volquez has been amazing, which is why you don't hear anybody screaming that they're idiots for trading Josh Hamilton away. But Aaron Harang is having an anomaly of a bad year, while Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto have shown that they both have great stuff, but are still a ways off from knowing how to use it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (46-54):
The Pirates are not alone in last place in the division right now. Good for them. Call me when Ian Snell stops being a horrible pitcher (my fantasy team curses you Mr. Snellington). Pirates pitchers are dead last in team ERA, team BAA, and team WHIP... and it's not even close in any of them (5.26 ERA to 2nd worst Colorado's 4.88). If Richie Sexson could only hit against lefties who play for the Pirates, he'd be the next home run king. Actually, could we set that up? That'd be pretty hilarious

Houston Astros (46-54)
Houston Texas has a Major League Baseball baseball team named the Astros. Their best hitter looks like Fat Elvis Presley. They were in the World Series 3 seasons ago. They will not be in it this season.


PREDICTIONS:
Who's going to win the NL Central? I'll give you a hint: they love sausage and beer. No, it's not your mom (BURN!), it's the Milwaukee Brewers! The boost they get from CC, along with their coming-of-age hitters, and the inevitable injury to Rich Harden (bonus: Kerry Wood's on the DL now!) means that they'll catch the Cubs and take the crown. Chicago will still win the Wild Card, but their beer shower will be bittersweet when they realize they're showering in Miller, the official Beer Sponsor of the Division Champ Brewers.