Now things get interesting - Part Deux

Alright kids, time for some expert National League analysis from yours truly. Yeah, since none of you believe that, Adam Man has thankfully provided some insight into the National League Central race. Therefore, I will merely glaze over the only division in baseball with six teams. Less work for me! Seriously though, I blame TBS not having any damn Braves games on anymore for my lack of NL knowledge. I know the Bill Engvall show and House of Payne are quality programs and all but still. Oh wait, all their original programming is complete crap! Geez, next thing you know they'll give Frank Caliendo his own show...

NL East:Philadelphia Phillies

They've been in the top 3-4 in the entire league in run differential all year. They are one of three teams that have a winning record on the road. Also, having Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins in your lineup doesn't hurt. Brad Lidge has performed very well for Charlie Manuel going 21 for 21 in save opportunities. Unfortunately, after Cole Hamels, their rotation is kind of horrific. You know, horrific in the way that we had to see Britney Spears' girl parts every time she got out of a car for months at a time. (For those of you who don't read What Would Tyler Durden Do, I'll save you the feeling of mace in the eyes...it didn't look good down there.) Adam Eaton? Brett Myers? Yikes. I don't know how well Joe Blanton will fit into the equation but if Hamels misses more than a couple of starts, they are in trouble. But I'm assuming he'll stay relatively healthy, and thus fend of the Mets and Marlins (and Braves?). New York is riding a hot streak right now but they don't hit behind Santana and besides Mike Pelfry, they're rotation approaches "Spears bathing suit area" levels as well. Now with Wagner's shoulder becoming a problem, the last season at Shea most likely won't get extended into October. I have a couple of friends who are diehard Mets fans and they wanted to blow the team up before Willie Randolph was fired and just start over with Wright, Reyes, Pelfry, Santana and Church. They might get their wish in the offseason. Conveniently, Philly and NY start a three game series tonight, so we'll see what happens. And regardless of where Florida ends up finishing, it's amazing what they've done with a payroll lower than one year of A-rod's salary. Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are scary good.

NL Central:Chicago Cubs

Again, go back to Adam Man's post about the Central but with Soriano coming back, that lineup is unstoppable. Which means...

Wild Card:Milwaukee Brewers

Sabathia pushes them over the edge. St. Louis won't be able to compete. But that leads me to...

NL West:St. Louis Cardinals

Yeah, I said it. The West is embarrasing. There should be a rule where if no team in a division finishes above .500, they forfeit their spot in the postseason. Pujols, Ankiel and Ludwick are having phenomenal seasons even though their rotation is extremely suspect. When Kyle Lohse is keeping you afloat, you may be on borrowed time. Adam Wainwright is coming back which will help too. You could have the Mets or the Marlins here either and I wouldn't be upset. But since none of that is actually happening...

NL West(seriously):Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado and San Diego have been HUGE disappointments. Just unforgivably bad this year. Everyone knew the Giants were going to suck but at least they don't have Bonds anymore. The Dodgers have a nice young core of players in Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier so it's not a complete surprise that they're "contending." Furcal going down really, really hurts though. They'll miss Saito a lot as well. Clayton Kershaw was sort of a bust in his first stint in the majors and didn't have the impact LA was looking for. Billingsley, Lowe and Koruda don't strike fear into a lot of batters' hearts, but they've been serviceable. Now Arizona has two of the top pitchers in all of baseball. The team got off to that great start, but they're bats just went dead. Like Eddie Murphy's career dead. Remember when guys like Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were hitting the cover off the ball? This division is so bad though that Haren and Webb can carry the team to a first place finish. Also calling Max Scherzer back up couldn't hurt.

Therefore:

Chicago vs. Arizona

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee

I think the Brewers might be able slip past the Phillies because of the Sheets/Sabathia combo. Philly can't answer that. Chicago protected themselves by getting Harden to counter Haren and Webb. There's going to be some great pitcher's duels. To the awards!

Rookie of the Year:Edinson Volquez, Cin

Volquez will get heavy Cy Young consideration. He's having an amazing year so far, but like his trade counterpart Josh Hamilton, I'm not sure if he'll be able to finish his first full year as strongly as he started it. Either way, he's the clear cut favorite. Jair Jurrjens of Atlanta is having a nice year as well but Volquez and his 9.46 K/9 ratio is ridiculous. Pencil it in now.

*EDIT*-A reader pointed out that Volquez is indeed not a rookie anymore. Although he never pitched more than 50 innings in a season, he had a combined 80 innings pitched from his time with the Rangers. If he's not in consideration, I'd go with either Geovany Soto or Jay Bruce. Bruce got off to an insane start, cooled off but is starting to hit again and is currently on an 11 game hitting streak. Soto has done a great job behind the plate for the Cubs. Right now, he has 16 home runs and an .849 OPS. Joey Votto is also having a good rookie year.*EDIT*

Manager of the Year:Ned Yost, Mil

Does Lou Pinella deserve MOY honors just because he didn't screw up? The Cubs are cursed and whatnot, great, I get it. But they clearly had one of the best, if not the best, team on paper coming into the year. Pinella is a great manager (but leave the rapping to Rick Ross and such, okay Lou?) and I'm not taking anything away from the job he's done this year. But Yost had more on his plate in my opinion. I'll have to see if the different way he handles the fifth spot in the rotation works out. And of course, if Milwaukee falters down the stretch again and miss the playoffs completely, the hardware will go to Lil' Lou.

Cy Young:Dan Haren, Ari

He is at the top of every stat category. Every single one. I'm not kidding. His BAA and OPSA is first in the NL at .209 and .573 respectively. He's first in WHIP at .95. Get the point? His teammate Webb is also having a great year. Tim Lincecum has been the lone bright spot on the Giants and strikes dudes out like crazy. I mentioned Volquez already and Ben Sheets might get some votes as well. But this is Haren's year. Just filthy.

Most Valuable Player:Albert Pujols, Stl

And we get another year of, "Do we vote for Most Productive Player or Most Valuable Player?" Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols are having insane years (again). Pujols has the higher average and rarely strikes out. Berkman's power numbers are better and he actually has 15 steals already. That's almost not fair. They are a wash defensively too. Chase Utley is a tremendous all around player and has the stats to make an argument for MVP. But he still has great hitters in the lineup with him and isn't the most valuable guy by definition when compared to Berkman or Pujols. The problem is, Houston has no shot of making the postseason barring some insanity. Chipper Jones has to be mentioned but again, Atlanta most likely won't be playing in October. Yeah, he won't hit .400 but I don't know if anyone will ever again. That brings me back to Albert though. He's got the stats and his team will be contending through September. They are only 2 back behind Chicago right now and are tied for the Wild Card with Milwaukee. But I just don't see those younger guys in St. Louis' lineup being as productive without Pujols there.

Whew! That's a whole lotta baseball coverage right thur. I wonder what trades will be made in the next nine days. Will any superstars be on the move or just role players that GMs need to complete their rosters? I'll just keep my ears to the ground and listen to Peter Gammons whenever possible. I suggest you do the same.

Now things get interesting

Man did this weekend get away from me. Anywho, we are now firmly entrenched in the second half of the 2008 Major League Baseball season. Some major deals have already been made (Sabathia and Harden) with a few more surely to take place before the July 31st deadline. Certain teams are still trying to figure out if they are buyers or sellers while others know that they stink and have no chance at making the playoffs. When looking towards October, we can safely eliminate: Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and San Diego. I suppose I could rip off Bill Simmons (10 week vaca to finish his book, nice) and do some sort of Dark Knight awards type deal but I'm still trying to process everything and it's two and a half days later. So we'll stick with a more conventional approach. Enjoy.

AL East:Boston Red Sox

While it'd be great to break up the monotony and have the Rays win this division, the Sox just have too many weapons. They have multiple MVP candidates (more on that later) and that doesn't even count David Ortiz because he's missed so much time with the wrist injury. Papelbon has shown blips of inconsistency but I think he'll be fine down the stretch. The young guys continue to impress and I think they need to keep Lowrie up on the big league club for good. Catcher and the bullpen are their only two week spots in my opinion and you can be sure Theo Epstein will make some kind of move that hopefully won't turn into another Gagne debacle. Tampa Bay and New York will certainly make things interesting though.

AL Central:Chicago White Sox

So you knew this was coming. It'll be a three team race for the rest of the year with Detroit finally waking up. It seems that the Chisox and the Twins have done this with basically smoke and mirrors all year. Up until yesterday, Chicago had all five starters in their rotation make every single start. They have either been first or second in quality starts. That is huge in today's game. But now Contreras is on the 15 Day DL and Vazquez has been strangely inconsistent. Their bullpen is very solid but Jenks is still a little banged up. Quentin, Dye and Crede all need to keep their production up and it wouldn't hurt if Konerko did anything. Anything at all. A HUGE factor in the Central race will be when Francisco Liriano gets called back up and how effective he will be. Seemingly 100% healthy, he has been dominating AAA ball but the Twins have come up with some garbage line that their is no room in their rotation for him right now. What?!?! Hey, keep him down there. You won't hear Ozzie Guillen or Jim Leyland complaining...

AL West:California Angels

This is the only division in baseball that looks like it's a wrap already. (And yeah, I know they're not called the California Angels anymore but their name now is so dumb that I refuse to acknowledge it.) Top to bottom, a great baseball team. Their rotation is filthy and K-Rod is a man possessed. No seriously, I think he needs an exorcism. Someone get John Constatine on the horn because no one should be celebrating that much after a save in July. Their lineup doesn't exactly set the world on fire, but Mike Scioscia will get the most out of his players. Oakland continues to amaze by playing above .500 with a cast of unknowns and Texas has some great young offensive players, but the Angels are just too far ahead and know how to hold a divisional lead.

AL Wild Card:Tampa Bay Rays

Now you may have noticed that these "predictions" are just the current standings. I realize I'm not going out on any kind of limb here. The Rays won't be able to fend of Boston but will keep New York, Minnesota, Oakland and Texas at bay with their youth, their impressive 1-2-3 of Kazmir, Shields and Garza and an attitude to prove to everyone that they aren't a flash in the pan. Troy Percival is still a ginoromous question mark especially since the Twins have Nathan and the Yanks have Mariano. Still, the Rays would make the postseason for the first time in the club's history.

So that means we're looking at:

Angels vs. Rays

Boston vs. Chicago

I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to who will represent the American League in the World Series. It sure is looking like another Red Sox/Angels showdown. Gotta love that home field advantage though.

Of course we can't forget the four postseason awards.

Rookie of the Year:Evan Longoria, TB

It might be overstating it slightly to say that he could even be considered an MVP candidate, but Longoria currently leads the Rays in home runs and RBIs. He plays a solid third base with only 7 errors so far this season and is fifth in the entire league in fielding % for third basemen. He was an All-Star and will be the face of the franchise longer than Kevin Costner will continue to star in awful movies. (Okay, maybe not that long. Swing Vote? Really?) Just one of the many young Rays who have turned a team that has been a laughing stock for a decade, into a title contender. Which leads me to:

Manager of the Year:Joe Madden, TB

Not a lot of people expected the White Sox to be where they are but NO ONE expected the Rays to be in first place on July 21st. He's really instilled in his players that they really have a chance to win. He realizes that he's got a group of talented young kids and they have the tools to succeed now, rather than two or three years from now. If they don't end up making the playoffs, I could see the award going to Sciosia or maybe Gardenhire/Girardi depending on who wins the Wild Card.

Cy Young:Roy Halladay, Tor

This was a tough one. There are two pitchers at the top of almost every category in the AL right now, but I don't see either of them having the success they had in the first half. Justin Duchscherer and Cliff Lee have been essentially lights out so far, but Lee in particular I see fading fast. And Duchscherer isn't even in the top 30 in K's. Ervin Santana should be considered too as he is having an outstanding year. He's in the top five in wins, strikeouts and WHIP right now. But his ERA is too high and I don't know if he'll start coasting in August due to his team's large lead. Now the Cy Young is a bit different than MVP because it's based waaay more on stats than playing for a contender. That's why Halladay will ultimately win. Losses aren't a great indicater of a starter's skill, and while he will have a few more than the other top pitchers, his other stats will completely overshadow them. This is all assuming that he stays healthy mind you. And while it is a shame that he pitches for the Blue Jays, he is the one true dominant pitcher in the American League. Dude has seven complete games! James Shields is next with three. It'd be great to see "Doc" pitch in the playoffs some day.

Most Valuable Player:Manny Ramirez, Bos

Mainly because I don't want to give JD Drew any kind of credit. There are a bunch of guys in the upper echelon here and no one truly stands out. I don't know if Carlos Quentin and Josh Hamilton will be able to keep up their paces in their first full years as pros. Ian Kinsler's home run and RBI totals are too low even though the stolen bases make up for it. I love my man Youk but he's a notorious poor second half player. A-Rod is always in the discussion even though he missed some time due to injury. Jermaine Dye (top ten in .OPS, average and HRs) is someone I could see vying for the title if he stays healthy. Of course as I write this, I see he left yesterday's game after getting hit in the knee with a pitch. Damn it! So Manny has the same kind of numbers as these other guys but he's the most consistent. And, I think when Ortiz comes back, he'll be more protected in the lineup. Plus with all the contract/options talk, you know Manny will try and put up the best numbers possible. Also heavily factored into this decision were the catch/high five/double play and cell phone call from inside the Monster. Just awesome.

So there's the American League for ya. I admit I don't follow the NL quite as closely but I'll be back at some point today (read: tomorrow) to give my thoughts that may or may not deal with excluding any NL West teams from the playoffs...