Hello, January! AFC Version

This isn't really something a lot of teams can be thinking right now. Even Tennessee, enjoying its undefeated status, knows that historic collapses can and do happen. There is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL, especially this year. Let's take a look at the playoff race right now and see who's got a shot, who's on the outside looking in, and who's spending more time scouting prospective draft picks than next week's opponent.

AFC
Right now, two teams have what you can consider a commanding lead on their division. The first being Tennessee, of course, who are up 4 games on Indianapolis. No one expects the Titans to go 16-0, but their schedule from here on out almost guarantees a playoff spot. Say Tennessee plays poorly and loses to the Bears, Jags, Jets, Steelers, and Colts. Even with bad games, they should beat the Texans, Lions, and Browns. That puts them at 11-5, which means we'll be seeing them in early 2009. Yes, I said there's no guarantee in the NFL, but this is as good of a sure thing as you'll get.

Pittsburgh and their 6-2 record is the other team. At 5-3, Baltimore's right on their ass, but with the way the Steelers have played lately, I would be very hard pressed to see anyone but them winning the division. Cleveland has underperformed all season, and the Bengals just got their first win, so it really comes down to these two teams. Even if Roethlisberger can't stay healthy, I'll still take him over Joe Flacco over the long run. We're only halfway through, but I very much expect the North to be taken by Pittsburgh.

The rest is a toss-up. No one else should feel comfortable, and most should still have postseason hope even if they haven't played up to their abilities.

Three teams are tied for the AFC East lead at 5-3: Buffalo, New York and New England. Buffalo dropped 3 of their last 4 games and can't seem to get in a rhythm. The Jets play well depending on what side of the bed they wake up on, and while their offense and defense can both play very well, they don't seem to play well at the same time. Matt Saracen, err, Cassel, has struggled, but you can't help but be impressed with his composure this season. If the Patriots are going to take the division, Cassel's going to have to grow up very, very quickly and rally the Pats past the Jets and Bills, who happen to be their next two games.

After this Sunday, the lead in the East will be narrowed down to at the most, 2 teams. The Jets will have to beat the Rams to stay on top with the winner of the Bills/Pats. These next two weeks are crucial for the shape of the East, but right now it's anybody's game. Oh, I haven't even mentioned that these three teams are only a game ahead of Miami. A big win from the Fins over Seattle on Sunday and another win against the Raiders next week means we're talking about them as a legitimate January team.

The West has Denver on top, but they're struggling. At 4-4, they keep letting San Diego stay in the division race. If you let a team like the Bolts hang around, you're bound to regret it later. Jay Cutler quickly let the early touts of how great he was get to him, and I don't have to tell you about their defense. If the Chargers can beat the Chiefs this week (which is no guarantee, considering Kansas City won their first matchup), and Cleveland can take out the Broncs, both teams will be tied at 4-5 for first place. With any sort of momentum in their favor, San Diego can turn their season around in a heartbeat and win that division. If I had to put money on it, I'd take the Chargers to grab that automatic playoff spot. With all that, Oakland isn't dead in the water yet. The poor performances of their division means that there is still an actual chance. Not a great chance considering the fact that the Raiders are terrible, but still a chance.

Then there's our two wild card spots. Four teams at 5-3, three teams at 4-4, and four teams at 3-5 means that there are 11 teams who aren't the Steelers or Titans that can very well see the playoffs.

5-3
I've already mentioned these four. New York, New England, Buffalo, and Baltimore all have the same record, but do they all have the stuff to get to January? If I had to take two of them to make it right now, I'd go with Baltimore's defense to pull them through, and New England's coaching, tradition, and inability to give up to give them a spot.

4-4
Miami, Denver, and my boys from Indianapolis are sitting at .500. I don't think anyone would have pegged the Dolphins or Colts as a .500 team, but for very different reasons. Inconsistent play has plagued Denver and Indy, and Miami's just finding ways to win. Out of the three, the biased fan in me will take the Colts any day of the week, but Denver's weak division and easy schedule gives them a good shot.

3-5
Cleveland, Jacksonville, Houston, and San Diego are 3-5, but there's no counting a single one of them out. They've got their strengths, they've got their weaknesses, but most importantly, they've got seven teams ahead of them who could within the span of two weeks, have the same or a worse record than them. I think we should see at least one or two of these guys in the playoffs.

Just wondering how crazy this is? Take a look at how much space there was between the good and the bad at this time in 2007.

9-0
New England (made playoffs)

7-1
Indianapolis (made playoffs)

6-2
Tennessee (made playoffs), Pittsburgh (made playoffs)

5-3
Cleveland (didn't make playoffs), Jacksonville (made playoffs),

4-4
Baltimore (didn't make playoffs), Buffalo (didn't make playoffs), San Diego (made playoffs)

Under .500 (4-5 or 3-5)
Houston (didn't make playoffs), Denver (didn't make playoffs)

Only one team at .500 at this point in 2007 made the playoffs, and that was the Chargers. Right now there are 7 times fighting for their division or the wild card, and in all likelihood, we will see these guys fight it out to the end. Remember how last season you had to start guys like Todd Collins or T.J. Duckett in your fantasy championship because most teams were resting their starters for the playoffs or not bothering to get them injured going into the postseason? Ok, well I started Collins and Duckett (and won), but your stars will be there playing Week 17, because we ought to have plenty of games the last week of the season with playoff implications.

I love football.