I know it's been quiet around here... but the start to the NFL season is upon us and I had to chime in. This really is my favorite time of the year, everyone. Sundays have a purpose again, and that's comforting. While we've had an eventful preseason (Rudi getting cut, Richard Collier getting shot, Pacman's reinstatement, Flacco the starter, Umenyiora's injury, Brady's foot, Peyton's knee, something something Brett Favre), but it's time to get down to business. Fear not, Adam Man is here with a game by game breakdown with predictions and fantasy advice, starting here with Part 1 of a 2-part series. AWAY WE GO!
Redskins @ Giants (-4)
The New York Giants (who I'm still not convince are any good) open the season against the Washington "we-could-be-really-good-if-we-could-just-figure-out-this-quarterback-situation" Redskins. That seems like a popular category in today's NFL (Minnesota, Baltimore, Buffalo, Oakland, etc...). No Umenyiora means Jason Campbell could have some more time to throw... but the Giants will be too motivated by the sweet voices of Keith Urban and Natasha Bedingfield (seriously NFL... these are your big guns?) to let the come crowd down, pulling off a close win. Giants, 24-20.
Fantasy Love: Clinton Portis, Plaxico Burress, Chris Cooley
Fantasy Hate: Eli Manning, Jason Campbell,
Lions @ Falcons (+3.5)
The season starts off with a bang here... I mean wow. It should be easy to call though. Rookie coach, rookie QB, game 1 disaster. Add to this the fact that Atlanta HATES defending the run, and apparently the Lions will be committed to it, and Detroit takes this one easily, 27-10.
Fantasy Love: Kevin Smith, Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson, Michael Turner
Fantasy Hate: Matt Ryan, both TE's
Seattle @ Buffalo (EVEN)
The changing of the guard finally happened in the Seattle backfield... unfortunately it changed to "Orange" Julius Jones. Pair that with all of the WR injuries, and the Hawks offense cupboard looks a little bare to start the season. Their defense will keep them in this one, but the Bills will control the pace of the game with their running attack and take the win. Bills, 17-14.
Fantasy Love: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Matt Hasselbeck
Fantasy Hate: Julius Jones/Maurice Morris, Trent Edwards, Courtney Taylor
Jets @ Dolphins (+5)
In an ironic matchup, team captains Brett Favre and Chad Pennington face off in Week 1 in a game sure to be riveting to Chad Pennington's grandma. Both teams sucked against the run last year and neither made any moves that I'm convinced will improve that, so I see a grinding ground game while the QB's get used to their new offenses, with the Jets winning, 20-13.
Fantasy Love: Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Tedd Ginn Jr.
Fantasy Hate: Chad Pennington, Derek Hagan, Jerricho Cotchery
Rams @ Eagles (-7)
Now here's a matchup that's actually interesting. Two teams that performed well below their talent level last year (11 wins combined), and so are very hard to judge coming into this one. I've seen some people predicting Philly wins the NFC East, but I have a hard time believing that with nobody for McNabb to throw to. It's also worth noting that Stephen Jackson is someone I avoided like the plague in all fantasy drafts this year. I see Philly winning at home in a high scoring game. 34-28 Eagles.
Fantasy Love: Brian Westbrook, Tory Holt, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger, DeSean Jackson (if return yards count)
Fantasy Hate: Stephen Jackson, Drew Bennett, Hank Baskett, Randy McMichael
Texans @ Steelers (-8)
I really feel Houston could surprise people this year. A healthy Schaub in his second year, complementary receivers in Johnson/Walter, and an emerging young defense. Of course the running game is still an issue. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, seems stacked at the skill positions but are weakening on their offensive line. Their defense will be too much in this game, however, and the balanced Steeler attack will pace them to a win. 24-17 Steelers.
Fantasy Love: Andre Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes
Fantasy Hate: Matt Schaub, Ahman Green, Rashard Mendenhall
Bengals @ Ravens (+2.5)
Here's two teams that can never quite get it figured out. The good news for Baltimore is that Kyle Boller is on IR, and they can start to see what they have in 1st round pick Joe Flacco right away. They'll probably see plenty of rookie RB Ray Rice as well, with Willis McGahee still not 100% from his knee surgery. While the Bengals have plenty of head problems and defensive question marks, most of their key contributers are healthy and committing to a Perry/Watson backfield will prove the right move (though not against this Defense). Bengals take it, 24-13.
Fantasy Love: Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco (gigglesnort), TJ Houshmandzadeh (suddenly with the second funniest last name), Derrick Mason
Fantasy Hate: Joe Flacco, Todd Heap, Chris Perry
Jaguars @
The Jags take their fun "trendy super bowl pick" label into Tennessee in a divisional matchup that they've split 3 of the past 4 seasons. It's strength vs. strength with Jax's 2-pronged rushing attack against the solid Titans run-D. However, in his 2 career games in Nashville, MJD has averaged 100 yards and a TD. Still, I'm feeling a vibe from this Titans defense, and I think Alge Crumpler will make VY look better than he ever has... I'm calling the upset, 17-14 Titans.
Fantasy Love: Maurice Jones-Drew, Alge Crumpler, Vince Young
Fantasy Hate: Jax Receivers, LenDale White, Justin McCarreins
Okay! Well it's been exhausting, but there's my analysis of the first 8 games. Back soon with the two 1:00 games I'll actually be paying attention to and all the late ones. Enjoy!
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