Friday, August 15, 2008

Adam Man's Guide to Being Pretty Okay at Fantasy Football

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Oh man... I'm pumped. It's finally fantasy football season again. And that means the most gratifying event of the entire season: the draft! The draft is the one point in the season where every player still has a bright ray of hope... just before their second round pick is suspended for abusing substances and they're forced with the decision of which Alex Smith to snatch off the waiver wire (hint: neither). I also love the draft because I'm generally too slow to pick up hot free agents during the season (stupid company internet filters) so I really need a great draft if I want a chance at contending halfway decently. And as a man who generally finishes between 3rd and 7th in just about every fantasy league I've ever played in... I know a thing or two about being halfway decent.

So I can't offer you tips on how to win your league... something I've never done. What I can do is help you build a squad that you don't avoid like the plague after week 5, one that will be competitive enough to keep you interested. Now right now you're probably asking "But Adam Man, why would you give out draft advice two days before your draft when the only people who read this blog are the other 11 people in your league?" Well, dear reader, why don't you mind your own business and stop questioning my motives? How about that?

So here's a hodge-podge of tips and tricks, broken into some lovely sections. How fun! Ready, go.

Start It Off Right:
  1. Draft old faithful before young and exciting. Let's say you were sitting with the number 4 pick last year. You were probably thinking "sweet, Frank Gore's still there, he had a big year last year, he's my guy." And then you watched Mr. Gore plod his way to 13th in the league in rush yards and 21st in TD's. Not exactly great value for a top-5 pick. Meanwhile, you could have snagged Brian Westbrook, who consistently had been getting 1500+ total yards and around 10 TD's for years. When given the chance, take a guy you KNOW will perform instead of the guy you THINK will perform better.
  2. Don't fall into the trap of handcuffing your starting RB's with their backups. It's great in theory, but then you end up replacing an injured Stephen Jackson in your lineup with Brian Leonard**. When you could have been concentrating on getting someone much better. handcuffing only makes sense if your guy's backup is the best player available.
  3. Don't use a draft pick on a kicker. And you probably shouldn't even pick most defenses until the last couple rounds. This should be obvious by now, but it still needs to be said. There will always be a backup wide receiver to drop before the end of the season to fill your lineup.
  4. Resist the runs. That's usually my advice for eating Mexican food, but it's appropriate in drafts too. Just because the two guys in front of you took tight ends, that doesn't mean you should take Todd Heap in the 5th round. Do you even have a #2 WR yet? No, you don't, do you. Shame on you. I hate to sound like a broken record, but pick the best player available, always. Your roster will fill out just fine, even if it makes you uncomfortable to see your favorite guy go. Thanks to Kate for providing this tip.

Do As I Say, Not As I Do:
  1. Never, EVER, draft Steve Smith. No, seriously. I know what you're saying, "Why not?! The guy gets 1000+ yards and 7+ TD's every year! He's GOOD." Yes, I know that, but for every multi touchdown game and hilarious celebration, theres 3 games where he just disappears. As good as he is, it's infuriating that he doesn't dominate every time out. Trust me, from personal experience, Steve Smith is a guy who will make you hate fantasy football***. Let him frustrate somebody else.
  2. Don't assume you'll be able to find a decent starting QB later than round 10. I always do this, I'm always pumped that I didn't reach for a mid-tier QB like everyone else, and that my WR and RB depth is solid. Then I spend the year shuffling between Jason Campbell, Matt Leinert, and Tavarius Jackson at QB. And it sucks. I'm not saying to reach higher than their value, but make sure you address the issue before it's too late.
  3. It's fine to draft your home-town favorites to your team. Who doesn't love rooting for the same player for multiple reasons? But only do it if they're in the right spot. Otherwise you end up being like me, and drafting Laurence Maroney at #5 overall. All the Kool-Aid in the world won't make that pick look good.
  4. Likewise, don't let your fantasy team impact your mood while watching your real team. Last year, every Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel touchdown made my blood boil... and it shouldn't have. My team just scored a TD, I should be pumped! If you can't separate fantasy from reality, my suggestion is to just avoid owning players on your favorite team altogether.
Shorter Tips That You're More Likely to Actually Read:
  1. Even though Eli Manning won the Superbowl, he is still Eli Manning. Keep that in mind.
  2. Know who you want, but always have at least 3 guys in mind a few picks before yours so you don't have to make a panic pick. This is where the TE run comes from, I think.
  3. You live and die by QB/WR combos. Having Brady and Moss last year was magical for most of the season, but ruined you Week 15. Variety is key.
  4. Even if you love a player, if he has a pre-season hamstring injury, run screaming in the other direction.
Guys I love This Year:
  1. Alge Crumpler, TE, Titans - He'll be for Vince Young what he used to be for Vick, and that's a good thing.
  2. Roddy White, WR, Falcons - Had over 1,200 yards and 6 TD's last year, and that was with Harrington/Leftwich. With Ryan/Redman he should be even better.
  3. Donte Stallworth, WR, Browns - Should get lots of looks in this offense, and will stomp on the feet of anybody trying to get in his way.
  4. Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys - Has proven for years he can get it done, and will finally get the bulk of the carries in Big D.
  5. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - Flashed his talent last year, will grow into a stud this season.
  6. Rookie Running Backs - Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewert, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Rashard Mendenhall all landed in great spots and should contribute well. Look for Smith to be the best of the bunch.
Guys I Hate This Year:
  1. David Garrard, QB, Jaguars - Hate's a strong word, but I expect some regression here after the big contract. I'm also not sold on Porter and Williamson yet.
  2. Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs - This will be the year he finally breaks down.
  3. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos - Brandon Marshall's in trouble, and there's little else helping him in Denver.
  4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks - Orange Julius will continue his run of awe-inspiring mediocrity.
  5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals - Remember what I said about lingering hamstring injuries? It's sad, but this former fantasy rock is anything but anymore.
  6. Rookie Wide Receivers - James Hardy, Devin Thomas, DeSean and Dexter Jackson, Mario Manningham and company will all take some time before they become very useful, if history is any indication.
So that's it, everything I could think of for Fantasy Draft guidelines. Good luck to everyone as your drafts come up, and remember: trust your research. If you can avoid the temptations to do crazy things, you'll be able to put together a team that's not flashy, but will keep you competitive. And isn't that all we really want?

*This is not me
** Confession: I thought Brian Leonard would be good last year
***Also, he punches teammates in the face.

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