Adam Man's Week 2 NFL Preview

Okay, so I may have lost all credibility with my predictions for Week 1... but it's freaking Week 1 of the NFL Season. You have a better chance at winning the lottery than guessing that stuff right. My 7-9 week was pretty pitiful, but at least I was right on the Tennessee pick, which I was confident on all the way. But San Diego and Indy losing at home to crappy NFC teams? Rookie QB/Head Coach duos going 2-0 in their debuts? Insanity. Listen, Reggie Bush and Eddie Royal owners, I'm sorry I hated on their chances. But history backed me up, and that's all we had to go on. That being said, let's try to right the ship this week. Here are my picks for Week 2:

Packers @ Lions (+6)
All you have to do is look at my fantasy rosters to know I love the Packers offense (Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings twice). All you have to do is look at the Lions to realize I hate them (though I'm now starting Jon Kitna in the league where I drafted Brady 2nd overall... gulp). If Detroit made Atlanta look like an all-world track team, this game could get real ugly, real quick.
Prediction: Packers, 34-17
Fantasy Love: Rodgers, Grant, Jennings
Fantasy Hate: Kevin Smith

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)
I will check this game to see how Dwayne Bowe, Ronald Curry, and Zach Miller do for my fantasy teams, and for no other reasons. I cannot possibly tell you how much I hate thinking of this game. Like, nightmare bad.
Prediction: Kansas City? 17-14? I guess?
Fantasy Love: Dwayne Bowe, Run DMC
Fantasy Hate: Ronald Curry, Larry Johnson

Giants @ Rams (+13.5)
I don't think the Giants are great, but even I can see this one will be a walk. We should get the Raiders, Cheifs, Rams, 49ers, and Dolphins into one stadium and fight until 1 team survives. There's really no room in the league for that much suck. The Rams are about to make Eli Manning look like a god.
Prediction: Giants, 31-14
Fantasy Love: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Brandon Jacobs
Fantasy Hate: Stephen Jackson, Marc "Whitey" Bulger

Colts @ Vikings (+2)
Here's where the games start getting confusing. The Colts lost to the Bears, who I feel are worse than the Vikings. But sports, time and time again, seem to prove they are not math... so transitive properties don't help here. Tavaris Jackson scares the poop out of me, as he should every Minny fan... but he won't need to do much here as All-Day and All-Night run All-Over the Colts, and their D-Line makes Peyton wish his knees worked right. Unless Indy gets an early lead, in which case the Vikes are screwed (get used to this rule).
Prediction: Minnesota, 27-24
Fantasy Love: Purple Jesus, Reggie Wang Wayne, Garrett Mills
Fantasy Hate: Tavaris Jackson, Sidney Rice, Joseph Addai

Titans @ Bengals (+1)
I'm going to go by my rule that people generally think Tennessee is worse than they really are and that Cincinnati is better than they really are. Vince Young is sad about interceptions and riding around with a handgun... but it's my understanding that dealerships in Tennessee place a handgun in every glove compartment as a promotional tool. Anyway, I'm riding the Chris Johnson express and waiting for the Cincy to show me something.
Prediction: Tennessee wins a painful game, 19-14
Fantasy Love: Chris Johnson (he's good), Bo Scaife (what?), Ocho Cinco (giggle)
Fantasy Hate: Carson Palmer (show me first), Chris Perry (ditto), Titans WR's

Saints @ Redskins (+3)
It's scaring me how many road teams I like this week, though this game doesn't scare me much. All the Zorn Stars out there are going to need to wait longer to see this team click, and even without Marques Colston the Saints offense looks strong. I'm not ready to all-out endorse Reggie Bush, but you should by no means have him on your bench.
Prediction: Saints win, 27-14
Fantasy Love: Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, Prime Minister Yah Mon
Fantasy Hate: Jason Campbell, Mantana Soss, David Patten

Bears @ Panthers (EVEN)
Another mystery game... I don't think anybody expected these two to pull out Week 1 games against teams thought to be AFC Elite. Chicago's win was more impressive, and more shocking, to me... but Carolina showed some toughness coming from behind on the road. I think Matt Forte has another big game, and Kyle Orton game-manages better than Jake Delhomme gun-slings.
Prediction: Bears, 21-16
Fantasy Love: Matt Forte, Deangelo Williams, Mushin Muhammad, Desmond Clark
Fantasy Hate: Kyle Orton, Jonathan Stewart

Bills @ Jaguars (EVEN)
After Brady went down, people started raving that the division was the Jets for the taking. Um, the Jets aren't even the second best team in the AFC East. Look north to Buffalo, where they've put together a solid team that will surprise people. I called Jax losing to Tennessee last week, and I'll call this one again this week. The Jags won't be bad this year, but they won't break out how most people claimed. I said it before the year... won't be a great season for Garrard. Not with Matt Jones as his primary target.
Prediction: Bills, 24-14
Fantasy Love: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Maurice Jones-Drew
Fantasy Hate: David Garrard, Matt Jones, Robert Royal

49ers @ Seahawks (-3)
So the Seahawks looked bad last week, but that was on the road against the Bills (who you now know I respect). This week they're at home against the 49ers (who you should assume I don't respect). The bulging discs in Hasslebeck's back scare me, but I think this defense will hold off the Niners just enough for a win.
Prediction: Seahawks, 20-17
Fantasy Love: Maurice Morris, Nate Burleson, Frank Gore, John Carlson?
Fantasy Hate: JT O'Sullivan, Isaac Bruce, Courtney Taylor

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-3)
Another situation that's changed... I expected a lot more from the Bucs last week than they gave, and a lot less from Atlanta than they showed. On the road this week, the rookie QB/coach shakiness will take hold. Also, the Buccaneers field a defense (the Lions should consider trying that out). Tampa will need to show more on offense before I can favor them largely, but...
Prediction: Bucs, 23-14... that feels about right.
Fantasy Love: Earnest Graham, Michael Turner, Joey Galloway
Fantasy Hate: Brian Griese, Matt Ryan, Mike Jenkins

Patriots @ Jets (+1)
The Matt Cassel era begins... and I can honestly say I'm excited. If you're confused why, read this article. Also, I'm not convinced by the Jets at all. The Pats will be running a lot to set up the play-action, and it will work. Brett Favre will make a crazy play, and throw a crushing interception. This game will be close, but the team that is better, not the QB who is better, will win this one.
Prediction: Patriots, 20-17
Fantasy Love: Sammy Morris, Randy Moss, Lavernues Coles
Fantasy Hate: Thomas Jones, Girl Parts Jericho Cotchery, Matt Cassel

Dolphins @ Cardinals (-4.5)
When it comes to games between bad teams, sometimes you just have to go with your gut. My gut tells me the Cards are slightly better than the Dolphins (what an endorsement!). The Fins made Thomas Jones look good last week, and they'll make Edge look even better. Miami will lose to a second grandpa QB in as many weeks.
Prediction: Cardinals win, 21-10
Fantasy Love: Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Ricky Williams
Fantasy Hate: Chad Pennington, Ted Ginn Jr., Jay-Z Anquan Boldin

San Diego @ Denver (EVEN)
Another game that you expected to be easier to call 2 weeks ago. San Diego lost a homer they should have won, then officially lost Merriman for the season. Denver's passing game looked strong without Brandon Marshall, and against one of the better Pass D's in the league. Combine those with the Denver home field, and I think San Diego is in panic mode at 0-2 before playing 3 games they should, and will have to, win.
Prediction: Denver wins, 28-20
Fantasy Love: Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Jay Cutler, Tomlinson
Fantasy Hate: Any 1 Denver RB, Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6.5)
Wow, that loud crash you heard was people diving off the Browns bandwagon. C'mon everybody, it was 1 game against a very good team. I'll agree the Cleveland won't be an incredibly consistent team this year, but the talent is still there and they'll be in the playoff hunt. They'll have to dig out of a hole though, as Pittsburgh looks crazy good and I don't see them losing this one.
Prediction: Pittsburgh, 31-20
Fantasy Love: Willie Parker, Big Ben, Heath Miller, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow
Fantasy Hate: Santonio Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Donte Stallworth

But what do I know. Enjoy the games everybody. Back on Monday for the MNF predictions.

Adam Man's Guide to Being Pretty Okay at Fantasy Football

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Oh man... I'm pumped. It's finally fantasy football season again. And that means the most gratifying event of the entire season: the draft! The draft is the one point in the season where every player still has a bright ray of hope... just before their second round pick is suspended for abusing substances and they're forced with the decision of which Alex Smith to snatch off the waiver wire (hint: neither). I also love the draft because I'm generally too slow to pick up hot free agents during the season (stupid company internet filters) so I really need a great draft if I want a chance at contending halfway decently. And as a man who generally finishes between 3rd and 7th in just about every fantasy league I've ever played in... I know a thing or two about being halfway decent.

So I can't offer you tips on how to win your league... something I've never done. What I can do is help you build a squad that you don't avoid like the plague after week 5, one that will be competitive enough to keep you interested. Now right now you're probably asking "But Adam Man, why would you give out draft advice two days before your draft when the only people who read this blog are the other 11 people in your league?" Well, dear reader, why don't you mind your own business and stop questioning my motives? How about that?

So here's a hodge-podge of tips and tricks, broken into some lovely sections. How fun! Ready, go.

Start It Off Right:

1. Draft old faithful before young and exciting. Let's say you were sitting with the number 4 pick last year. You were probably thinking "sweet, Frank Gore's still there, he had a big year last year, he's my guy." And then you watched Mr. Gore plod his way to 13th in the league in rush yards and 21st in TD's. Not exactly great value for a top-5 pick. Meanwhile, you could have snagged Brian Westbrook, who consistently had been getting 1500+ total yards and around 10 TD's for years. When given the chance, take a guy you KNOW will perform instead of the guy you THINK will perform better.
2. Don't fall into the trap of handcuffing your starting RB's with their backups. It's great in theory, but then you end up replacing an injured Stephen Jackson in your lineup with Brian Leonard**. When you could have been concentrating on getting someone much better. handcuffing only makes sense if your guy's backup is the best player available.
3. Don't use a draft pick on a kicker. And you probably shouldn't even pick most defenses until the last couple rounds. This should be obvious by now, but it still needs to be said. There will always be a backup wide receiver to drop before the end of the season to fill your lineup.
4. Resist the runs. That's usually my advice for eating Mexican food, but it's appropriate in drafts too. Just because the two guys in front of you took tight ends, that doesn't mean you should take Todd Heap in the 5th round. Do you even have a #2 WR yet? No, you don't, do you. Shame on you. I hate to sound like a broken record, but pick the best player available, always. Your roster will fill out just fine, even if it makes you uncomfortable to see your favorite guy go. Thanks to Kate for providing this tip.

Do As I Say, Not As I Do:

1. Never, EVER, draft Steve Smith. No, seriously. I know what you're saying, "Why not?! The guy gets 1000+ yards and 7+ TD's every year! He's GOOD." Yes, I know that, but for every multi touchdown game and hilarious celebration, theres 3 games where he just disappears. As good as he is, it's infuriating that he doesn't dominate every time out. Trust me, from personal experience, Steve Smith is a guy who will make you hate fantasy football***. Let him frustrate somebody else.
2. Don't assume you'll be able to find a decent starting QB later than round 10. I always do this, I'm always pumped that I didn't reach for a mid-tier QB like everyone else, and that my WR and RB depth is solid. Then I spend the year shuffling between Jason Campbell, Matt Leinert, and Tavarius Jackson at QB. And it sucks. I'm not saying to reach higher than their value, but make sure you address the issue before it's too late.
3. It's fine to draft your home-town favorites to your team. Who doesn't love rooting for the same player for multiple reasons? But only do it if they're in the right spot. Otherwise you end up being like me, and drafting Laurence Maroney at #5 overall. All the Kool-Aid in the world won't make that pick look good.
4. Likewise, don't let your fantasy team impact your mood while watching your real team. Last year, every Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel touchdown made my blood boil... and it shouldn't have. My team just scored a TD, I should be pumped! If you can't separate fantasy from reality, my suggestion is to just avoid owning players on your favorite team altogether.

Shorter Tips That You're More Likely to Actually Read:

1. Even though Eli Manning won the Superbowl, he is still Eli Manning. Keep that in mind.
2. Know who you want, but always have at least 3 guys in mind a few picks before yours so you don't have to make a panic pick. This is where the TE run comes from, I think.
3. You live and die by QB/WR combos. Having Brady and Moss last year was magical for most of the season, but ruined you Week 15. Variety is key.
4. Even if you love a player, if he has a pre-season hamstring injury, run screaming in the other direction.

Guys I love This Year:

1. Alge Crumpler, TE, Titans - He'll be for Vince Young what he used to be for Vick, and that's a good thing.
2. Roddy White, WR, Falcons - Had over 1,200 yards and 6 TD's last year, and that was with Harrington/Leftwich. With Ryan/Redman he should be even better.
3. Donte Stallworth, WR, Browns - Should get lots of looks in this offense, and will stomp on the feet of anybody trying to get in his way.
4. Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys - Has proven for years he can get it done, and will finally get the bulk of the carries in Big D.
5. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - Flashed his talent last year, will grow into a stud this season.
   
6. Rookie Running Backs - Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewert, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Rashard Mendenhall all landed in great spots and should contribute well. Look for Smith to be the best of the bunch.
   

Guys I Hate This Year:

1. David Garrard, QB, Jaguars - Hate's a strong word, but I expect some regression here after the big contract. I'm also not sold on Porter and Williamson yet.
2. Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs - This will be the year he finally breaks down.
3. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos - Brandon Marshall's in trouble, and there's little else helping him in Denver.
   
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks - Orange Julius will continue his run of awe-inspiring mediocrity.
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals - Remember what I said about lingering hamstring injuries? It's sad, but this former fantasy rock is anything but anymore.
6. Rookie Wide Receivers - James Hardy, Devin Thomas, DeSean and Dexter Jackson, Mario Manningham and company will all take some time before they become very useful, if history is any indication.

So that's it, everything I could think of for Fantasy Draft guidelines. Good luck to everyone as your drafts come up, and remember: trust your research. If you can avoid the temptations to do crazy things, you'll be able to put together a team that's not flashy, but will keep you competitive. And isn't that all we really want?

*This is not me
** Confession: I thought Brian Leonard would be good last year
***Also, he punches teammates in the face.