Adam Man's Guide to Being Pretty Okay at Fantasy Football

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Oh man... I'm pumped. It's finally fantasy football season again. And that means the most gratifying event of the entire season: the draft! The draft is the one point in the season where every player still has a bright ray of hope... just before their second round pick is suspended for abusing substances and they're forced with the decision of which Alex Smith to snatch off the waiver wire (hint: neither). I also love the draft because I'm generally too slow to pick up hot free agents during the season (stupid company internet filters) so I really need a great draft if I want a chance at contending halfway decently. And as a man who generally finishes between 3rd and 7th in just about every fantasy league I've ever played in... I know a thing or two about being halfway decent.

So I can't offer you tips on how to win your league... something I've never done. What I can do is help you build a squad that you don't avoid like the plague after week 5, one that will be competitive enough to keep you interested. Now right now you're probably asking "But Adam Man, why would you give out draft advice two days before your draft when the only people who read this blog are the other 11 people in your league?" Well, dear reader, why don't you mind your own business and stop questioning my motives? How about that?

So here's a hodge-podge of tips and tricks, broken into some lovely sections. How fun! Ready, go.

Start It Off Right:

1. Draft old faithful before young and exciting. Let's say you were sitting with the number 4 pick last year. You were probably thinking "sweet, Frank Gore's still there, he had a big year last year, he's my guy." And then you watched Mr. Gore plod his way to 13th in the league in rush yards and 21st in TD's. Not exactly great value for a top-5 pick. Meanwhile, you could have snagged Brian Westbrook, who consistently had been getting 1500+ total yards and around 10 TD's for years. When given the chance, take a guy you KNOW will perform instead of the guy you THINK will perform better.
2. Don't fall into the trap of handcuffing your starting RB's with their backups. It's great in theory, but then you end up replacing an injured Stephen Jackson in your lineup with Brian Leonard**. When you could have been concentrating on getting someone much better. handcuffing only makes sense if your guy's backup is the best player available.
3. Don't use a draft pick on a kicker. And you probably shouldn't even pick most defenses until the last couple rounds. This should be obvious by now, but it still needs to be said. There will always be a backup wide receiver to drop before the end of the season to fill your lineup.
4. Resist the runs. That's usually my advice for eating Mexican food, but it's appropriate in drafts too. Just because the two guys in front of you took tight ends, that doesn't mean you should take Todd Heap in the 5th round. Do you even have a #2 WR yet? No, you don't, do you. Shame on you. I hate to sound like a broken record, but pick the best player available, always. Your roster will fill out just fine, even if it makes you uncomfortable to see your favorite guy go. Thanks to Kate for providing this tip.

Do As I Say, Not As I Do:

1. Never, EVER, draft Steve Smith. No, seriously. I know what you're saying, "Why not?! The guy gets 1000+ yards and 7+ TD's every year! He's GOOD." Yes, I know that, but for every multi touchdown game and hilarious celebration, theres 3 games where he just disappears. As good as he is, it's infuriating that he doesn't dominate every time out. Trust me, from personal experience, Steve Smith is a guy who will make you hate fantasy football***. Let him frustrate somebody else.
2. Don't assume you'll be able to find a decent starting QB later than round 10. I always do this, I'm always pumped that I didn't reach for a mid-tier QB like everyone else, and that my WR and RB depth is solid. Then I spend the year shuffling between Jason Campbell, Matt Leinert, and Tavarius Jackson at QB. And it sucks. I'm not saying to reach higher than their value, but make sure you address the issue before it's too late.
3. It's fine to draft your home-town favorites to your team. Who doesn't love rooting for the same player for multiple reasons? But only do it if they're in the right spot. Otherwise you end up being like me, and drafting Laurence Maroney at #5 overall. All the Kool-Aid in the world won't make that pick look good.
4. Likewise, don't let your fantasy team impact your mood while watching your real team. Last year, every Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel touchdown made my blood boil... and it shouldn't have. My team just scored a TD, I should be pumped! If you can't separate fantasy from reality, my suggestion is to just avoid owning players on your favorite team altogether.

Shorter Tips That You're More Likely to Actually Read:

1. Even though Eli Manning won the Superbowl, he is still Eli Manning. Keep that in mind.
2. Know who you want, but always have at least 3 guys in mind a few picks before yours so you don't have to make a panic pick. This is where the TE run comes from, I think.
3. You live and die by QB/WR combos. Having Brady and Moss last year was magical for most of the season, but ruined you Week 15. Variety is key.
4. Even if you love a player, if he has a pre-season hamstring injury, run screaming in the other direction.

Guys I love This Year:

1. Alge Crumpler, TE, Titans - He'll be for Vince Young what he used to be for Vick, and that's a good thing.
2. Roddy White, WR, Falcons - Had over 1,200 yards and 6 TD's last year, and that was with Harrington/Leftwich. With Ryan/Redman he should be even better.
3. Donte Stallworth, WR, Browns - Should get lots of looks in this offense, and will stomp on the feet of anybody trying to get in his way.
4. Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys - Has proven for years he can get it done, and will finally get the bulk of the carries in Big D.
5. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit - Flashed his talent last year, will grow into a stud this season.
   
6. Rookie Running Backs - Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewert, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, and Rashard Mendenhall all landed in great spots and should contribute well. Look for Smith to be the best of the bunch.
   

Guys I Hate This Year:

1. David Garrard, QB, Jaguars - Hate's a strong word, but I expect some regression here after the big contract. I'm also not sold on Porter and Williamson yet.
2. Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs - This will be the year he finally breaks down.
3. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos - Brandon Marshall's in trouble, and there's little else helping him in Denver.
   
4. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks - Orange Julius will continue his run of awe-inspiring mediocrity.
5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals - Remember what I said about lingering hamstring injuries? It's sad, but this former fantasy rock is anything but anymore.
6. Rookie Wide Receivers - James Hardy, Devin Thomas, DeSean and Dexter Jackson, Mario Manningham and company will all take some time before they become very useful, if history is any indication.

So that's it, everything I could think of for Fantasy Draft guidelines. Good luck to everyone as your drafts come up, and remember: trust your research. If you can avoid the temptations to do crazy things, you'll be able to put together a team that's not flashy, but will keep you competitive. And isn't that all we really want?

*This is not me
** Confession: I thought Brian Leonard would be good last year
***Also, he punches teammates in the face.

Time for fantasy football already?

I suck at fantasy football. Okay, that's a bit harsh. I think that maybe I just have bad luck. (Why would that be any different from every other aspect of my life?) My team last year seemed to go up against the top scorer of the week. Head to head matchups were killing me. My team actually finished second in total points but I ended up with an 8-7 record. That was good for eighth in the standings because I lost in the consolation playoffs. That's so damn embarrassing. Seriously, what's the point? Even if your league is playing for money, no one finishing fifth or worse is going to get paid anyway. Moving right along... I seem to do pretty well in fantasy baseball because the season is so much longer and there are more day to day management options. Also, injuries in fantasy football have much more of an impact because there are only 16 regular season games. And if you have a certain awesome wide receiver but he has a hobo throwing him the ball (more on that in a sec), he's not going to catch a lot of passes is he? So this may be an exercise in futility, but hopefully you the reader as well as myself can learn from the trainwreck that was my 2007 fantasy football experience. Join me won't you?




So I had the second pick in a 12 team league. We had a live draft with all but one manager not present. (Guess who won the league by the way...) I did a fair amount of research going in but with 16 rounds, I wasn't exactly confident that I'd be making stellar picks towards the end. I find that the "tier" system of ranking players by position is the best way to go. There's the common sense stuff like don't draft defenses (a few exceptions there) and tight ends (again, Gates, Gonzalez and Whitten were the exceptions) until much later and don't draft a kicker until the second to last or last round. You have to watch out for bye weeks and pay attention to who is drafting before you and see what their needs are. Now since I had the second pick, I wasn't drafting again until pick number 23. Better make that first round pick a good one, right?


I picked Steven Jackson.




He only had two 100 yard rushing games and missed four games in a row due to an injury. Now granted, Orlando Pace missing the entire year didn't help matters, but when your first pick is that unproductive, you're probably going to be in for a rough year. I ended up trading him anyway. Oh, and for all you people thinking he'll have a bounce back year or some such nonsense, he's holding out for a huge contract and has stated he's willing to sit out half the year. Good luck with that...



Okay, so a whopping 14 running backs get taken after my pick along with Manning, Brady, Palmer. I had my eyes on Drew Brees but he was taken two picks before me. I decided on a wide receiver as soon as Brees was snatched, and saw that only Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison had been taken. So when it's my pick, I smile and confidently belt out these immortal words, "I'll take Steve Smith!" Yeah, that turned out great too because Jake Delhomme went down in the third game of the year. Awesome! And who ends up "leading" the Panthers in passing the rest of the year? Vinny Testaverde. Unfreakinbelievable. Matt Moore and David Carr completed the trio of suckitude and Smith only managed 3 more TD's after Delhomme got hurt. I traded Smith too.



Well after picking Smith, I knew I'd be picking again almost immediately. Wayne and Housh get snagged so I went with Antonio Gates, again feeling pretty confident. Right. Gates had a very up and down year but I traded him as well (noticing a pattern?) before things got really bad. He only caught one pass each in three of his last five games. He was battling a toe injury but Phillip Rivers was more inconsistent than a Judd Apatow movie. Twenty more players would be picked before I got another chance. I was panicking a bit because I didn't have a quarterback yet but only McNabb and Vince Young got snatched up before I was on the board. "Great!" I thought. Look who's still available. I couldn't believe my luck. Marc Bulger was sitting there. And I took him with the 47th overall pick. Yeah, he had exactly three good games all year and finished with more interceptions than touchdowns. He was hurt for a good portion of the season and I straight up dropped his ass after about Week 7.

So at this point you may be wondering how the hell I finished second in overall points.





THIS GUY! I only had one running back at this point but had a great feeling about Adrian Peterson aka Purple Jesus. Lucky for me, his college knee injuries scared some people off so I grabbed him. What a rookie season! He had two games where he scored three touchdowns and oh yeah, he broke the single game rushing record dropping a filthy 296 yards in week 9 against the Chargers. Many people are projecting him as a top three pick this year. He did hurt his knee missing two games so his health is still a concern. But damn, he would have rushes where no one was even close to bringing him down. He'll still be sharing some of the carries with Chester Taylor, but that's pretty much the norm these days in the NFL.

Showing some iota of competency, I took Braylon Edwards in the sixth round. These two guys carried my team and Edwards is without a doubt in the top tier of wide receivers. The Browns shocked everyone with their offense last year but I would honestly take B.E. over every other receiver except Randy Moss. Okay, maybe Reggie Wayne too, but Edwards is definitely the third best receiver. I don't see him getting out of the second round in most (12 team) drafts. Rounds 7 and 8 brought about the brilliant picks of Calvin Johnson and Ladell Betts respectively. Johnson didn't have the breakout rookie year I thought he would, but he'll be much more productive this season. I could see him going as early as the sixth round.

My ninth round pick proved to be the most productive one. This pick gave me more points than any other one I drafted. The New England Patriots defense. Some frown on picking defense that soon, but like I said earlier, there are a few exceptions. Minnesota's defense this year is going to be downright scary. Last year they finished with 275 total fantasy points (the Pats had 287) and that was before they traded for Jared Allen. You know, the same Jared Allen that led the NFL in sacks with 15.5 last year? Yeah that guy. San Diego's defense is right up there too. Eighth to Tenth round is where I think these teams will go.

The wheels came FLYING off at the point as I drafted Chris Brown (not the singer, but that probably would have been a better pick in retrospect), Kevin Curtis, Leon Washington and Antwaaaaan Randle-El. Curtis had one game where he caught three touchdown passes and I don't think I even started him that week. That was pretty much it from him. Washington turned out to be an okay return guy but I cut him early in the season. Randle-El didn't score a lot of TD's but got decent receiving and return yardage. But this is what I was talking about as far as who to take in the late rounds. Going back and looking at my league's draft, there are hardly any players that made any kind of impact that were taken after the 10th round. That's where the waiver wire comes in. There are so many damn injuries that backups that looked like they were hardly going to play, turn into great pickups that will get you a ton of points. I snatched up Ernest Graham from the Bucs and he was extremely productive. I have a feeling he'll get drafted this year though...

I guess this just turned into me rambling about how my first four picks were flaming hot garbage. Hmmmm. There is a ton of luck involved once the draft is over but if you want to be successful in your league, you still have to put the time into preparation. Make sure you know what the point scoring system is and how many players start at each position. Again, more common sense stuff but there are definitely certain leagues where a few stragglers get roped into taking a team because there were only 8 or 9 dudes (and ladies...hey ladies) that couldn't field a 10 or 12 team league. So good luck, unless you're playing against me, then in which case, draft Steven Jackson with your first round pick. Oh, and if you're in a keeper league, I guess you can disregard most of this post. Probably should have said that at the beginning...