World Series Preview

So if I was doing a pool March Madness style for the playoffs, I'd be in pretty good shape right now. I missed one divisional series, got the championship series' right, and I don't think many people would have picked the Cubbies to blow it like they did. I'd get at least my 5 bucks back.

That being said, it's time to predict the winner.

I took the Phillies a while ago, and there's no turning back on that now. I say 5 games and they're World Series champions. But does it really matter?

If the Phillies win, Philadelphia's 25 seasons without a major championship is over, the fans' suffering is through, and a great team often overlooked will be crowned winners.

If the Rays win, they will have gone from the worst team in baseball to World Series Champions. They haven't had as many years of suffering, but let's face it...the Devil Rays were BAD. They were awful and couldn't do a thing right. This is an exciting young team of guys who collectively make less money than the combination of Jeter and A-Rod. That incredible starting rotation that brought them here? Less than $6,000,000 total, which is over $4,000,000 less than Josh Beckett's salary alone.

The Rays' pitching staff has the advantage in this series, but barely. As great as Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine, and their relievers (most of the time) have been, a lot of people don't talk about Hamels, Moyer, Myers and of course, Lidge. This is the sole difference between the two teams. If you can get to Tampa Bay's starting pitching and are losing late, you stand a chance of coming back against their relievers. If you see Brad Lidge on the mound, you might as well throw up a white flag and get it over with. The Phillies have yet to lose a game they've led with him on the mound this season. I'm in the "closers are overrated" boat, but Lidge is different. This year, he's been as sure a sure thing as you can have. 100% success in 72 games. Francisco Rodriguez blew 7 saves in 76 appearances. Yeah, he was given less insurance more often, but Lidge was perfect. David Price in Maddon's closer by committee is Tampa Bay's closest to a sure bet, and the only guy who I'd feel comfortable with going into the 9th of Game 7 with a 1 run lead, but he's still very very green.

As far as batting, there is not a single weak link in either lineup. There is no player in the batting order where the pitcher is thinking to themself, "If only we can get to ____, they're a sure out".

Ok, maybe Pedro Feliz on the Phillies and Gabe Gross on the Rays. I would hope for the Rays' sake that Rocco Baldelli is well enough to hit, because I really wouldn't want Gross to be relied on every night. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Gross stinks.

But Iwamura, Pena, Navarro, Longoria, Upton, Crawford, Floyd, Bartlett, and sometimes Aybar. Put them up against Rollins, Howard, Ruiz, Utley, Victorino, Burrell, and Werth. These are two very, very dangerous lineups who can hurt you in a lot of different ways.

So this is what Game 1 looks like...Kazmir vs. Hamels. I'd take Hamels, because if you've seen the guy pitch...well...I don't have to explain why if you've seen him pitch. The guy's stuff is nasty, almost as nasty as...

Brett Myers in Game 2. I'm still pushing for Manuel to put in Myers as a DH, or at least push his start to Game 3 so he can hit, but I don't have much clout in the Phillies' clubhouse. Myers has been downright dangerous with his bat these playoffs, and has been the subject of not one, but two blogs of mine. I haven't even written two blogs about Peyton Manning yet. Think about that. Anyway, he'll take on James Shields, who is also very good, but I would contend that as of right now, Myers is better.

Jamie Moyer is starting against Matt Garza Game 3. To give you an idea of how old Moyer is, he was alive for an entire year and 4 days before John F. Kennedy was assassinated. He's three years younger than Terry Francona. Imagine Francona going out in 2004 and playing outfield or first base for the Red Sox. That's essentially what it's like for Jamie Moyer to be pitching, and pitching well. Interesting fact I just learned while researching that: Jamie Moyer and Terry Francona both played for the Chicago Cubs at the same time. I wasn't even alive for most of that season (the year was 1986, and I was born in September). This was Moyer's first major league season. His first win? Against the Phillies. On top of all of this, Jamie Moyer is an all-around good guy. He's been the recipient of the Roberto Clemente Award and the Lou Gehrig Award.

I was a bump in my mom's belly when these two strapping young prospects played together.

Oh yeah, after so many years of service, Moyer has never won a ring. Not only has he never won a ring, this is the first time he's ever made the World Series. Essentially, if you're not, at the very very least, rooting for Moyer this series, you are a terrible person.

I haven't really gone in to a World Series in which I didn't care who won, but was still excited anyway, until this year. Mostly it's because I don't care about either team, but this year I really like both the Rays and the Phillies. It's like if someone gave me a High Life and a Pabst and told me to choose just one. Yeah, I'll take the champagne of beers (Phillies), but I love me some PBR (Rays) at the same time. However, you can hold on to your Budweiser Chelada (Red Sox) and Corona Light (Dodgers) thank you very much.

If you drank a thirty rack of Colt 45, vomited it into the shallow part of the ocean where 5 year old kids pee,
and then scooped all of that up and put the Budweiser logo on it, you'd probably come up with the Budweiser Chelada.

I'll post thoughts every game, because I don't think anyone else would care enough to. Also, I have nothing better to do.

Wait, what?!?!

On Thursday, I was all ready to write a post about how a Rays/Phillies World Series would actually be exciting, albeit a ratings nightmare. I held off though, partly because I'm extremely lazy, but also because I remembered what happened last year. By all accounts, the Rays should have already been preparing to face the newest addition to the Grown Ass Man Club, Cole Hamels in Game One of the World Series. Instead, the Boston Red Sox staged yet another improbable comeback in Game Five of the ALCS to stay alive. And moments ago, Jonathan Papelbon shut the door against Tampa Bay solidifying a 4-2 victory, forcing a Game Seven. Holy Crap!!

Hold on there kids...

Yes, I am an admitted Chicago White Sox fan. Yes, the Red Sox have the second highest payroll in the league. Yes, the Rays have reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. But can you even root for them at this point? They have some awesome young players who are great to watch, but considering the whole Manny cluster-F, it is kind of amazing that Boston is where they're at. As previously discussed on this very website, the home grown talent of the Red Sox is astounding and was once again on display tonight. Youkilis, Masterson, Papelbon were the three main factors of the game. Of course, you can't ignore what Josh Beckett did tonight either. I mean, no one knows how hurt he actually is. But he gutted it out ala Curt Schilling and we are one game away from a Red Sox/Phillies showdown.

When all is said and done, everyone will look back and wonder what the hell Joel Madden was thinking having Kazmir pitch before Shields. His reasoning seemed sound at the time, but YIKES! I'm sure FOX wasn't too keen on a Tampa Bay/Philly matchup, but I still maintain it would be a fun series to watch. Harkening back to my previous post about being a desensitized sports fan only proves my point. I am absolutely not shocked in the slightest the Boston is on the verge of stealing this series but I'm stoked to tune into TBS tomorrow (assuming they actually carry the friggin' game from start to finish this time). Can Garza close the door or will Lester rebound from his poor performance in Game Four? Oh yeah, there's football on all day tomorrow too! October rules!

They got in, now what?

I'm going to keep this short and sweet. I originally wanted to rip off Bill Simmons and do a running diary of Sox/Rays Game 1, but I was on the phone with the new temp agency I'm "working" for during the first two innings, so yeah. There's already been three home runs in the first three innings with three lead changes. In an effort to torture the entire Chicago fan base, Ozzie Guillen started a pitcher he publicly stated he had no confidence in, good ol' Mr. Big Game himself, Javier Vazquez. I think John Danks would probably pitch better coming off of the 8 inning gem against the Twins on Tuesday. They seriously won 1 - 0. I wholeheartedly feel like Chicago can beat the Rays but can they make it to the World Series again? I'll keep TBS on lockdown with Don Orsillo and Harold Reynolds(!) announcing the action. If only there was a tv feature that let you mute only the commercials. Anyway, in retrospect, my earlier Choke post might have been a bit harsh. At least I'm not a Mets fan...

Oh yeah, with all this baseball playoff and NFL talk, I haven't mentioned that NBA training camps have started this week. The Celtics are down in lovely Newport, RI (the only good part of the state) at Salve Regina college. I'm pretty sure with Sam Cassell resigning, they now have 4,877 players on the roster. And don't think for a second that just because they won the championship last season that I'm going to take it easy on Doc if Leon doesn't get on the court. The season starts in four weeks!!!

I gots me a game to watch, but here's one for the ladies:

I ran out of clean socks. Someone love me...

EDIT: My sources down in Newport contacted me late last night informing me that nearly the entire team was out clubbing. Daps were exchanged. So you might be reading articles elsewhere saying how KG along with Pierce and Ray Allen were the first ones at the gym on Tuesday, but they are handling their B.I. in da clubz too.

Insert Boondock Saints pun here:

I realize that things have slowed down considerably here at SPLP. Today is the first day it hasn't rained in Boston since May and the baseball regular season is entering the home stretch. How many more baseball posts can I write anyway? The NFL preseason is picking up steam with dumb injuries piling up by the second. (Damn you Donteezy! Don't be messing with my boy B.E. like that.) The USA Basketball team is set to take on some tougher competition in the quest to get back the gold in Beijing. Leon is no doubt rocking some intense offseason workouts and the last of the NBA free agents are signing with news today that Andre Iguodala staying in Philly. But in light of this apparent writing malaise, I thought I'd write a bit about someone who is facing a more serious kind of fatigue. An athlete who up until a few years ago, seemed destined for greatness and appeared to be blessed with infinite talent. (Here's a hint, he's the dude in the picture.)


Rocco Baldelli was drafted by the Tampa Ray Devil Rays in the first round of the 2000 amateur draft and made his debut with the team three years later. Baldelli was a star athlete at Bishop Hendricken High School in Rhode Island. (Warwick...ewww.) He was one year older than me but I never made it over there to see him play. I was clearly doing other constructive things in high school... Anyway, people in the area who did watch him were pretty heavy on the hyperbole in their descriptions. (Of course, one of the best athletes to ever come out of the Ocean State is not saying all that much.) But his rookie of the year caliber season in 2003 sure provided some validaty to all the buildup. Baldelli played 156 games, drove in 78 runs, had 27 stolen bases and hit .289. Oh yeah, he played a mean center field too. In fact, the next season, he led all major league center fielders in range factor. That year, he also cut his strikeout total by 40 and hit five more home runs. But Tampa Bay wasn't the juggernaut that they are now and anyone outside of Rhode Island and Florida weren't paying too much attention to this rising star. And unfortunately for the 6'4, 200 pound phenom, this is where this starting going south.


During the offseason following 2004, Rocco tore his ACL and was scheduled to be out until the All Star break. But during his rehab, he managed to hurt his elbow so severely that he needed Tommy John surgery. (Fun fact: Raiders kicker Sabastion Janikowski has had tommy john surgery. What?) It is rare that a position player needs the surgery but that put him on the shelf until June of the 2006 campaign. He came back in great shape however and again put up some good numbers. In 364 at bats, Baldelli had 16 homers and hit .302. So okay, minor setback but things were definitely looking up moving forward. Until he pulled a hamstring during spring training the next year. Well, compared to a torn ACL and an elbow surgery, a pulled hammy doesn't seem to bad. Here is where things go from south to just plain weird.

He played 35 games up until May 15th but was placed on the DL again because of the hamstring. He tried to come back but aggravated it again in a minor league game. Along with the continued muscle injuries, Baldelli started to notice that he began tiring very quickly during workouts. He missed the rest of the year. By now everyone was starting to wonder what the problem was. And even after extensive testing, doctors could only say that he was suffering from a "mitochondrial disorder" where his body wasn't producing enough ATP which is what the human body uses to power cells. (Biology, you scary!) After failing to comeback during spring training of '08, the team again put Baldelli on the DL with an unknown return date and also failed to pick up the option on his contract for the following year. Now don't get me wrong, Josh Hamilton is my boy, but he nearly threw away his gifts (and life for that matter) by abusing drugs before making a storied comeback this year. But using drugs was his choice. Rocco Baldelli didn't choose to have his body fail him.

Ironically, the Rays activated Rocco this week when both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria went on the DL. He has played in two games so far and made a great diving catch that had everyone holding their breath. While he won't be able to play back to back games for the foreseeable future, Baldelli hopes to contribute to a team that is now poised to enter the postseason for the first time in franchise history. It is unsure whether or not he'll be able to play past this year or if a team will even take a chance on him. Perhaps doctors will be able to better diagnosis him and provide some sort of treatment options. But like Bo Jackson, Baldelli will probably go down in the history books as an athlete with unlimited potential and talent whose injuries destroyed what could have been a Hall of Fame type career. And like Bo, Rocco Baldelli deserves better.

Now things get interesting

Man did this weekend get away from me. Anywho, we are now firmly entrenched in the second half of the 2008 Major League Baseball season. Some major deals have already been made (Sabathia and Harden) with a few more surely to take place before the July 31st deadline. Certain teams are still trying to figure out if they are buyers or sellers while others know that they stink and have no chance at making the playoffs. When looking towards October, we can safely eliminate: Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and San Diego. I suppose I could rip off Bill Simmons (10 week vaca to finish his book, nice) and do some sort of Dark Knight awards type deal but I'm still trying to process everything and it's two and a half days later. So we'll stick with a more conventional approach. Enjoy.

AL East:Boston Red Sox

While it'd be great to break up the monotony and have the Rays win this division, the Sox just have too many weapons. They have multiple MVP candidates (more on that later) and that doesn't even count David Ortiz because he's missed so much time with the wrist injury. Papelbon has shown blips of inconsistency but I think he'll be fine down the stretch. The young guys continue to impress and I think they need to keep Lowrie up on the big league club for good. Catcher and the bullpen are their only two week spots in my opinion and you can be sure Theo Epstein will make some kind of move that hopefully won't turn into another Gagne debacle. Tampa Bay and New York will certainly make things interesting though.

AL Central:Chicago White Sox

So you knew this was coming. It'll be a three team race for the rest of the year with Detroit finally waking up. It seems that the Chisox and the Twins have done this with basically smoke and mirrors all year. Up until yesterday, Chicago had all five starters in their rotation make every single start. They have either been first or second in quality starts. That is huge in today's game. But now Contreras is on the 15 Day DL and Vazquez has been strangely inconsistent. Their bullpen is very solid but Jenks is still a little banged up. Quentin, Dye and Crede all need to keep their production up and it wouldn't hurt if Konerko did anything. Anything at all. A HUGE factor in the Central race will be when Francisco Liriano gets called back up and how effective he will be. Seemingly 100% healthy, he has been dominating AAA ball but the Twins have come up with some garbage line that their is no room in their rotation for him right now. What?!?! Hey, keep him down there. You won't hear Ozzie Guillen or Jim Leyland complaining...

AL West:California Angels

This is the only division in baseball that looks like it's a wrap already. (And yeah, I know they're not called the California Angels anymore but their name now is so dumb that I refuse to acknowledge it.) Top to bottom, a great baseball team. Their rotation is filthy and K-Rod is a man possessed. No seriously, I think he needs an exorcism. Someone get John Constatine on the horn because no one should be celebrating that much after a save in July. Their lineup doesn't exactly set the world on fire, but Mike Scioscia will get the most out of his players. Oakland continues to amaze by playing above .500 with a cast of unknowns and Texas has some great young offensive players, but the Angels are just too far ahead and know how to hold a divisional lead.

AL Wild Card:Tampa Bay Rays

Now you may have noticed that these "predictions" are just the current standings. I realize I'm not going out on any kind of limb here. The Rays won't be able to fend of Boston but will keep New York, Minnesota, Oakland and Texas at bay with their youth, their impressive 1-2-3 of Kazmir, Shields and Garza and an attitude to prove to everyone that they aren't a flash in the pan. Troy Percival is still a ginoromous question mark especially since the Twins have Nathan and the Yanks have Mariano. Still, the Rays would make the postseason for the first time in the club's history.

So that means we're looking at:

Angels vs. Rays

Boston vs. Chicago

I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to who will represent the American League in the World Series. It sure is looking like another Red Sox/Angels showdown. Gotta love that home field advantage though.

Of course we can't forget the four postseason awards.

Rookie of the Year:Evan Longoria, TB

It might be overstating it slightly to say that he could even be considered an MVP candidate, but Longoria currently leads the Rays in home runs and RBIs. He plays a solid third base with only 7 errors so far this season and is fifth in the entire league in fielding % for third basemen. He was an All-Star and will be the face of the franchise longer than Kevin Costner will continue to star in awful movies. (Okay, maybe not that long. Swing Vote? Really?) Just one of the many young Rays who have turned a team that has been a laughing stock for a decade, into a title contender. Which leads me to:

Manager of the Year:Joe Madden, TB

Not a lot of people expected the White Sox to be where they are but NO ONE expected the Rays to be in first place on July 21st. He's really instilled in his players that they really have a chance to win. He realizes that he's got a group of talented young kids and they have the tools to succeed now, rather than two or three years from now. If they don't end up making the playoffs, I could see the award going to Sciosia or maybe Gardenhire/Girardi depending on who wins the Wild Card.

Cy Young:Roy Halladay, Tor

This was a tough one. There are two pitchers at the top of almost every category in the AL right now, but I don't see either of them having the success they had in the first half. Justin Duchscherer and Cliff Lee have been essentially lights out so far, but Lee in particular I see fading fast. And Duchscherer isn't even in the top 30 in K's. Ervin Santana should be considered too as he is having an outstanding year. He's in the top five in wins, strikeouts and WHIP right now. But his ERA is too high and I don't know if he'll start coasting in August due to his team's large lead. Now the Cy Young is a bit different than MVP because it's based waaay more on stats than playing for a contender. That's why Halladay will ultimately win. Losses aren't a great indicater of a starter's skill, and while he will have a few more than the other top pitchers, his other stats will completely overshadow them. This is all assuming that he stays healthy mind you. And while it is a shame that he pitches for the Blue Jays, he is the one true dominant pitcher in the American League. Dude has seven complete games! James Shields is next with three. It'd be great to see "Doc" pitch in the playoffs some day.

Most Valuable Player:Manny Ramirez, Bos

Mainly because I don't want to give JD Drew any kind of credit. There are a bunch of guys in the upper echelon here and no one truly stands out. I don't know if Carlos Quentin and Josh Hamilton will be able to keep up their paces in their first full years as pros. Ian Kinsler's home run and RBI totals are too low even though the stolen bases make up for it. I love my man Youk but he's a notorious poor second half player. A-Rod is always in the discussion even though he missed some time due to injury. Jermaine Dye (top ten in .OPS, average and HRs) is someone I could see vying for the title if he stays healthy. Of course as I write this, I see he left yesterday's game after getting hit in the knee with a pitch. Damn it! So Manny has the same kind of numbers as these other guys but he's the most consistent. And, I think when Ortiz comes back, he'll be more protected in the lineup. Plus with all the contract/options talk, you know Manny will try and put up the best numbers possible. Also heavily factored into this decision were the catch/high five/double play and cell phone call from inside the Monster. Just awesome.

So there's the American League for ya. I admit I don't follow the NL quite as closely but I'll be back at some point today (read: tomorrow) to give my thoughts that may or may not deal with excluding any NL West teams from the playoffs...

Six names on the first place Rays

We're at the half way mark and the surprise team of the year is the first place Tampa Bay Rays.

Wow. They're not even fooling around like the NL West where the division leading D-Backs are hovering at .500. We're talking the real deal, leading the league in winning percentage, World Series contender, Tampa. Bay. Rays. Just wow.

This is like that year when the Nets transformed from perennial losers to the Jason Kidd show featuring the Nets. No one was comfortable with the idea that the Nets were good at basketball. Not even Nets fans. Likewise, the AL East is slowly coming to grips with the fact that there is a real tangible possibility that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox will win the division. That hasn't happened since 1997 when the Orioles edged New York by two games for the title.

So how are they doing it, you ask? What is the difference between this Rays team and the Devil Rays of last season? I've got six names for you: three hitters and three pitchers that are keeping Tampa Bay on Top.

Your first instinct would be to say, "Oh, their big names must be having killer seasons." Wrong. In fact the opposite is true. The Rays big three (B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Pena) are all having much worse years than they did in 2007. When looking at OPS, the best quick and dirty measure of hitting performance, Upton is down from .894 last year to .818 this year, Crawford down from .820 to .724, and Pena a woeful drop down from 1.037 to .769.

In 2007, the Rays as a team finished eighth in the AL in Runs Scored (782, 4.8 per game) and fifth in OPS (.769). The team numbers this year actually don't differ all that much. At the end of June, Tampa Bay ranked sixth in the AL in both Runs Scored (387, 4.7 per game) and OPS (.759). If their big three have fallen off that much from last season, who's picked up the slack?

Here we start with the six key names for the Rays. The first guy on the list is former Rookie of the Year, Eric Hinske. He leads the Rays in OPS (.880) and is second in home runs (13). Oh yeah, his 2008 salary? $800,000! Talk about a good pick up for GM Andrew Friedman.

The next guy filling the holes is 24 year old catcher Dioner Navarro. He was originally a Yankees prospect before being dealt to the Dodgers in the three way trade in which New York acquired Randy Johnson. In 2006 the Rays traded catcher Toby Hall and pitcher Mark Hendrickson for Navarro, Pitcher Jae Seo, and outfielder Justin Ruggiano. After an unimpressive year and a half in a Rays uniform, Navarro seems to be living up to his potential. This year he ranks second on the team in OBP (.366) and has driven in 31 runs in 59 games. That’s certainly an improvement from his .286 OBP and 44 RBIs in 119 games in 2007.

The last hitter I will mention here is considered to be the future of the franchise. Evan Longoria is making an excellent case for RoY honors. He leads his team in home runs (15), RBI's (47), and is second on the team in OPS (.864). Also, his eminent ascent to the role of starting third-basemen moved Akinori Iwamura to second which allowed the Rays the freedom to deal Ty Wigginton to the Astros in return for...

Dan Wheeler: our first pitcher on the list of six. Wheeler was originally a Tampa Bay draft pick in 1996, but played his best years in a Houston uniform. In both 2005 and 2006 he pitched over 70 innings out of the bullpen and posted ERA's of 2.21 and 2.52 respectively. He had an awful start to the season in 2007 before joining the Rays where he had an awful end to it as well. His ERA between the two teams over 74.2 innings was 5.30.

The most telling number from that campaign was the 11 homers he gave up (my rule of thumb for a good amount of home runs allowed is 10 innings per HR). This year he is has only given up 4 home runs in 38.1 innings (much better), and that along with his usual low walk total and some good defense has him sporting an ERA of 1.88. Wheeler should be considered one of the premier set up men in the game and he is the key reliever bridging the gap from the starters to...

Troy Percival. OLD! Here we have a 38 year old flame throwing corpse of a closer who probably thought it would be cool to pull a Wade Boggs, go into semi-retirement, and sign with the Rays. Little did he know he'd be notching saves for the best team in the game. He's not the young man he used to be, but I'll take his 3.54 ERA, and 30 K's in 28 innings any day of the week. Especially when you consider that Al Reyes was closing for the Devil Rays last year with his 4.90 ERA and 13 HR's allowed in 60.2 innings!

The last piece of the puzzle for Tampa Bay is a starting pitcher. No, not Kazmir. He's always been lights out. Shields is about where he was last year as well. Not even Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are doing remarkably better if you compare home runs, walks, and strikeouts. The big difference in the rotation is in what they're getting out of Matt Garza.

Garza was acquired from the Twins in the offseason with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morin for Delmon Young, Jason Pridie, and Brendan Harris. Garza completes the picture. He gives the Rays a serious upgrade over the collective trash of Jason Hammel, Casey Fosum, Jae Seo, and J.P. Howell that served as their fifth starter in 2007. Now with five pitchers who can go seven deep most times out, they can save their key relievers for only the most crucial spots. A tired bullpen is always a recipe for disaster.

This is the real key to the difference between the 2007 Devil Rays and the 2008 Rays (aside from the overly PC name change): the pitching, particularly the relief pitching. In 2007, the Rays had a bullpen ERA of 6.16! All they had to do was get that down to 5.00 and they would see a dramatic improvement in their winning percentage, but they've done better than that. This year their bullpen ERA is at 3.21. Opponents are hitting a measly .213 against Tampa Bay after the starters leave.

Barring any major injuries, this team is bound for the post season. The scary part is that they are built for the playoffs: three good starters, a lights out bullpen, good speed, and solid defense. The only thing they are lacking is that game changing bat, but if Crawford, Upton, and Pena start playing the way they were last year, we could be looking at a true World Series contender.