Monday, November 10, 2008

Hello, January! NFC Version

I should probably write myself a note that if I'm going to start a special post such as this, I should finish it before Sunday and everything gets changed. Let's start this from scratch...

Unlike the AFC, no one has a lock on their division in the NFC. As good as the New York Giants are, and as bad as the NFC West is sans Arizona, no one is even looking at a magic number yet. For the Giants, they need 5 of their next 7 to guarantee the division. Arizona's looking at 5 of the next 8, but a win tonight would make that 4 of 7. Still no definite title in sight for Warner and them fellers.

If you thought the AFC was a clusterfudge, just look at the NFC. For the first time since...what did the announcers say, 1960 or something?, a team with a winning record is in last place at this point in the season. In fact, say the Saints got put up against a non-division team this week and won. We'd then have 2 last place teams with better than .500 records. When you're currently one of the favorites for MVP and your team is in last place, you know you're Drew Brees and it's the 2008-09 NFL season.

Additionally, I'll have to update the AFC playoff look later this week now that my entire Steelers theory is out the window.

Just to make things easier, let's pretend the Giants win out and no one catches the Cardinals. I assume the latter will definitely happen (which means the Niners will win tonight and I'll be once again pulling my hair out), but the Giants still have a lot of work to do.

Anyway...this leaves us 2 divisions up for grabs and two wild card slots.

At 7-2 we've got Carolina. Arguably the 3rd best team in the NFL right now, they're in the most surprising, quiet, competitive, and funnest division in the NFL. Oh yeah, and underrated. The NFC South still doesn't get talked about or cared about. It'll be tough to stay under the radar when you've got three teams in the playoffs, but that division seems to be ok where it is right now.

At 6-3 lies Washington, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and if they win tonight, Arizona.

5-4 we have Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Half North and half East.

At 4-5, Green Bay and New Orleans have played far too well to drop below .500, but it happened.

The NFC North can go to the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Neither team is a long shot, and even if the Packers lose next week, I still wouldn't count them out. They're too dangerous when they play smart football.

The NFC South has Carolina trying to pull away from the pack, but there's still a ways to go.

Last year, we knew that 4 or 5 teams were amazing, and there were a bunch of mediocre teams fighting for wild card spots. This year, either teams are getting better and the talent's getting spread out, or teams are just getting worse. I think the former is correct here.

There are, count them, THREE teams with next to no shot of the playoffs. Detroit, St. Louis, and Seattle. If Arizona wins, add San Fran to the list. Still. Everyone but those four teams and the three in the AFC (Oakland, Kansas City, Cincy) has their fans cheering for them to just get a streak going and make the playoffs. Anyone can do it. Even some of the seven I just mentioned.

Now, for my Giants theory. When you look at the rest of their schedule, their two game lead on the division seems a lot less comfortable. Not a single team under .500. Minnesota and Baltimore are their 'easy' games. They have Dallas IN Dallas, with Tony Romo most likely. Washington IN Washington. And they get to face the rival for best team in the NFC, Carolina. Not easy. The Giants will tell you it's the exact same thing as if they were playing Cincy, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, but it's definitely not. The Giants know every game will be a fight, and they need to keep their guys healthy for the playoffs. It'll be interesting down the stretch to see how the guys who love to collapse in the second half and barely crawl into the playoffs handle being the favorite.

If Matt Ryan doesn't win Rookie of the Year...I will quit football-watching. He came out swinging at the beginning of the season and keeps getting better every game. He's assumed the role of leader on a horrendous Falcons team and you can't ever really give him enough credit for how he's turned this offense around. His touchdown numbers aren't Manning-like yet (Ryan has 11, although a solid second half could have him up there with Manning's rookie number of 26), but he has a great passer rating and is completing nearly 60% of his passes. The entire Atlanta offense looks so confident with him at the helm. Remember the frightened "what the hell is going on with this play?" look you'd see from guys like Roddy White last season? White is finally able to be the type of receiver he wants to be with a guy who can hit him, and he's putting up some of the most solid and consistent numbers in the NFL right now. Matt Ryan. ROTY.

Ok, now to go bask in my Colts glory.

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