Week 7 Picks... Better Late Than Never

Last week was one of the most exciting NFL football days we've had in a long time. The kind of day where I regret not having the NFL Sunday Ticket package (hey Scrob... is it awesome? It's awesome, isn't it). Detroit/Minnesota, Miami/Houston, St. Louis/Washington, and that ridiculous Chicago/Atlanta game all went down to the very last second of the game. We had a QB draw on 4th and goal for the win... a team win after losing the lead with 11 seconds left... a winless team kick a game winning field goal even after their offensive lineman gets a 15 yard penalty for yelling at a ref.... just an amazing group of games to all be happening at the same time. Have I mentioned how much I love the NFL??

Ok, it's getting late, so let's get to this week's games:

Chargers @ Bills (EVEN)
James: The Bills were finally cut down to size last game after Arizona shut down their offense and tore up their defense. Trent Edwards should be back though, which ought to get Buffalo's offense back on track. Marshawn Lynch has been disappointing so far this season, and he's going to need to step it up if the Bills want to keep the ball on the ground and away from San Diego's secondary. The Chargers punished New England last week, and are looking like the same team they were last year, if not better. Remember how San Diego started off slow in 2007 and it looked like they'd miss the playoffs after the first couple weeks...and then they became dominant? The Chargers take a while to wake up, but once they're wired, like they are now, they're tough to stop. Philip Rivers is improving and finding Vincent Jackson more and more. Chris Chambers may or may not play, but he hasn't been nearly as big a factor as his fantasy stats would show. Even with the talents of Tomlinson, the Chargers should be getting Darren Sproles in the mix, as he's filling in Michael Turner's role quite nicely. If the Bills win, expect a close game. If the Chargers win, it could be a blowout.
James' Pick: San Diego over Buffalo, 31-20
Adam's Pick: Bills win at home, 28-24, because even I admit beating New England doesn't make you a great team right now.
Fantasy Love: Lee Evans
Fantasy Hate: Vincent Jackson

Vikings @ Bears (-2)
James: The Vikes pulled away with a lucky call and a last second field goal last week against the Kitna-less Lions, and they've been anything but impressive this season. Their offense is about a quarter as productive as expected, and their defense has been on and off. To add to this, Brad Childress still doesn't look like he knows how to coach, which could be the reason for their offensive and defensive woes. Regardless of how they got there, Minnesota's still 3-3 and looking to at the very stay on top of the NFC North lead, with Chicago and Green Bay 3-3 also. The Bears are also looking to improve going into their bye week with Kyle Orton at the helm. If anything, Lovie Smith will never have to see clips of himself on TV stating "Rex Grossman is our quarterback" over and over again after this season. The Bears were recipients of a last second field goal defeat thanks to Atlanta last week, and need to stay above .500 if they're going to have any momentum for the second half of the season. These two teams will grind it out and win whatever way they can, which seems to be the norm for the NFC North this season.
James' Pick: Chicago over Minnesota, 16-6
Adam's Pick: Chicago wins 31-21 in a surprisingly offensive game
Fantasy Love: Kyle Orton
Fantasy Hate: Bernard Berrian

Steelers @ Bengals (+8)
Adam: As the 2-year owner of Willie Parker in my keeper league, I'm almost not even frustrated with these injuries anymore. I just accept they're going to happen. I really thought he'd be back for this game though, and I'll sadly be starting Mewelde Moore. Mewelde's a decent backup, and the Bengals are just the right team to make him look like a star. Big Ben is back to full strength as well, and you'll probably see a pass-heavy scheme today, especially with Moore being a skilled receiver out of the backfield (in 2006 he had 20 more receptions than rushing attempts!). On the other side, Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to start for the Tiggers. I saw in person Fitzpatrick in college, as he absolutely shredded my school's defense and led Harvard to a blowout win over Northeastern. Unfortunately, the only player to make it to the NFL from that Northeastern team was on the Bills' practice squad for one season... the Steelers are a bit more talented. The AFC is starting to look like business as usual.
Adam's Pick: Pittsburgh wins, 34-17
James' Pick: Cincy over Pittsburgh, 24-20
Fantasy Love: Ben Roethlisberger
Fantasy Hate: Cedric Benson

Titans @ Cheifs (+9)
Adam: Man, I am so torn about this game. It's smelled like upset city all week to me. Both of Tennessee's starting WR's are out... the Titans are talking about getting Vince Young back into the lineup... the Titan's are undefeated. I even had a dream last night where someone was saying to me "I can't believe Kansas City won!" But the more I look at it... especially with Larry Johnson being suspended for the game... I just can't bring myself to do it. I just don't see how Brodie Croyle and Kolby Smith are going to move the ball against Tennessee... I want to do it but... I just... I just can't.
Adam's Pick: Tennessee wins, 20-17
James' Pick: Kansas City takes it, 17-16 (apparently he's ballsier than me)
Fantasy Love: Chris Johnson
Fantasy Hate: Kolby Smith

Cowboys @ Rams (+7)
Adam: This one... I'm willing to be a little more bold about. Between busted Tony Romo and old-ass Brad Johnson, then the juggling act of getting Roy Williams and Terrell Owens balanced... the Cowboy's passing game will not be full-speed today. The Rams have the offensive talent to make lots of plays, and they finally look like they're going to use it. Plus they look ALL sorts of fired up behind their new coach. I'm telling you, upset city here.
Adam's Pick: St. Louis upsets Dallas, 27-24
James' Pick: Dallas over St. Louis, 20-13
Fantasy Love: Stephen Jackson
Fantasy Hate: Terrell Owens

Ravens @ Dolphins (-3)
James: Both teams are coming off of tough losses to AFC South teams last week. The Wildcats got shut down by a Houston team that I can guarantee you will not give up on this season, while the Ravens got downright embarrassed by the likes of the revived Colts. The loss looked much, much worse for Baltimore though, as Miami just didn't play well. Baltimore's weaknesses on their defense, the only thing really keeping them a legit team, were exploited, and you can be sure Pennington's going to be tempted to throw the deep ball on Sunday. Well, he'll be tempted...but chances are he'll pitch it to Ronnie Brown and let him chuck it long. McClain was brought back down to Earth, McGahee is still overrated, and McRice just hasn't really done anything. If the Ravens can't rely on their running game, they're going to have to rely on Joe Flacco, who is probably in the bottom tier of NFL quarterbacks right now. This season the Ravens should consider a learning process, and Miami might teach them a few lessons this Sunday.
James' Pick: Miami over Baltimore, 34-13
Adam's Pick: Baltimore over Miami, 21-13. Baltimore's too disciplined to fall for gadgets.
Fantasy Love: Willis McGahee
Fantasy Hate: Ricky Willaims

49ers @ Giants (-7)
James: Going into the season, there were a lot of things to like about the Niners. There hasn't been much to like about their last three games, all losses. The 49ers have proved they can beat bad teams, such as Seattle and Detroit, but that's it. The combined record of those teams so far...1-9. However, Cleveland was 1-3 going into Monday Night last week, and guess what team they surprised? Eli Manning and the G-Dudes. The Giants may have under prepared, but that seems unlikely considering they barely beat the Bengals in overtime a couple weeks before. They may have just played a poor game, or they may be starting their second half Giants slump early. This game should give us a better understanding of whether Monday was a fluke or not. If J.T. O'Sullivan can pick part the Giants secondary like Derek Anderson did, and Frank Gore can punish the defensive line, this could be a second big upset in a row. If not, and Eli Manning settles down, I see the New York Football Giants improving to 5-1 and guaranteeing a spot by themselves on top of the NFC East.
James' Pick: New York Giants over San Francisco, 45-28
Adam's Pick: Giants over Niners, 31-21
Fantasy Love: Brandon Jacobs
Fantasy Hate: JT O'Sullivan

Saints @ Panthers (EVEN)
Adam: So I'm typing this as the 1:00 games are starting, and I have no idea why in the world I'm watching Giants/Niners and not this game on FOX. The New England area needs to write a collective letter to the NFL and FOX and tell them that we actually don't care about the Giants. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing for 1st place in the NFC South for the second week in a row. They have some reasons to worry this week, as the already ridiculous Drew Brees gets both Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey back. To have a chance in this game, the Panthers need to control as much of the clock with their running game as possible and keep Brees and Bush off the field. I just don't see it being enough though.
Adam's Pick: Saints win, 34-21
James' Pick: New Orleans over Carolina, 35-16
Fantasy Love: Drew Brees, obviously
Fantasy Hate: Muhsin Muhammad

Lions @ Texans (-6)
James: Even if Houston lost against Miami last week, I'd still say they were undoubtedly the favorite to win this game. However, favorites mean nothing, and the Lions need to win sometime. I picked the Redskins over the Rams in a bloodbath, and that didn't work out so well. But let's face it, the Lions are bad, and they're only getting worse. Kitna's out for the season, and a lot of teams have better third string QB's than Detroit's starting gun now. I'm all for UConn players in the NFL making an impact, but I was thinking more for the future with Donald Brown, Darius Butler, and Scott Lutrus. Dan Orlovsky wasn't really at the top of my list. I don't even think Dan Orlovsky was at the top of Dan Orlovsky's list either. Roy Williams is gone to the Cowboys, which means one of Orlovsky's weapons that he wouldn't be able to hit from 5 yards away is lost. If you don't think Detroit's got a chance, just remember that they have to win sometime.
James's Pick: Houston over Detroit, 34-20
Adam's Pick: Houston wins it, 24-13
Fantasy Love: Andre Johnson
Fantasy Hate: Detroit Passing Game

Colts @ Packers (+3)
James: Bob Sanders is out, Kelvin Hayden is out, Joseph Addai is out. This spells disaster. Oh, except for the fact that Melvin Bullitt and Tim Jennings, Sanders and Hayden's backups, both got an interception last week, and combined for 17 tackles, 15 solo. Dominic Rhodes was 5 yards away from the season high for a Colts running back after taking over for Addai late in the first quarter. During the 2006 Super Bowl run, Rhodes was the starter, not Addai. The Colts have brought in Chad Simpson and Clifton Dawson to replace Addai and Hart. Both are familiar with Indy's system, so you won't have to worry about them not knowing the plays. I am however, upset Mike Hart is on injured reserve, as he just might be the next generation in great Colts running backs. Remember his name for next season. Simpson and Dawson aren't anything special, but they're effective, and against Green Bay's solid run defense, it'll probably be an air attack the entire game anyway. Notice I haven't even mentioned Peyton Manning or Reggie Wayne yet. The key to the Colts' winning this game is their deadly pass rush. If they can put pressure on Aaron Rodgers and force him into making bad throws that go for interceptions, the Colts will find themselves at 4-2 at the end of 60 minutes. The Packers will need to finally get some solid production out of Ryan Grant if they're going to break down the Colts' defense, but none of this matters if the same defense shows up this Sunday that showed up against the Ravens.
James' Pick: Indianapolis over Green Bay, 37-24
Adam's Pick: Colts win, 31-27
Fantasy Love: Dominic Rhodes, Ryan Grant
Fantasy Hate: Aaron Rodgers

Jets @ Raiders (+5)
James: The Jets can make a statement here if they put themselves at 4-2 and keep up with the AFC East pack. The Raiders can make a statement here if they do anything productive. Oakland's got a mediocre defense, and Brett Favre's put some big numbers up against mediocre defenses. The Jets have a surprisingly good defense this season that no one seems to be talking about, and it's a perfect fit to stop Oakland's run-only offense. They're 3^rd in the NFL with 69 YPG allowed to running backs, so this will be a key matchup. If the Raiders can make something click with either McFadden, Fargas, or Bush, they could keep Brett Favre off the field and possibly wrangle the Jets. Get it, wrangle? Like the jeans? That Brett Favre wears? No? Ok. It's not as easy a matchup for the Jets as you might think, but the advantage definitely works to their favor. We'll see how Oakland works under the Tom Cable era. I'm sure if the Raiders continue to stink this season (which is as good a guarantee as there is in this game), Al Davis will find some way to blame this on Cable and not the fact that he is the biggest cancer to any team in any sport.
James' Pick: Oakland over New York, 16-9
Adam's Pick: Raiders beat the Jets, 21-17
Fantasy Love: Darren McFadden
Fantasy Hate: Bart Frave

Browns @ Redskins (-2.5)
Adam: If you listen to Kate, the Browns are the worst team to ever put on a football uniform. Apparently she's never heard of the Bay Area. When you look closer, you see a middle-of-the pack team, with a few players who have amazingly explosive but inconsistent talent. Last week, they exploded all over the Giants' faces, and shocked just about anyone. Meanwhile, the Zorn Stars were getting a bit ahead of themselves, and got blindsided by the winless Rams last week. This looks to be two teams who started the year the opposite of what was expected, and have been traveling in opposite directions since then. The Skins still have a stout Run-D, so Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards need to keep their progress moving. The weirdest storyline so far is the Kellen Winslow "mystery illness," which will keep him out again this week. If the Browns and their big, new defensive line can hold Portis in check, I say they take this one.
Adam's Pick: Browns win, 31-24
James' Pick: Washington over Cleveland, 42-28
Fantasy Love: Braylon Edwards
Fantasy Hate: Mantana Soss