NL Central Second Half Preview: LET'S DO THIS

So the Scrobinator has gone ahead and given you a second half preview for the AL, the main league I ever pay attention to. What's a guy to do? Follow the headlines, that's what... and if you've been watching the transaction wire over the past few weeks, you know it's all about the NL Central. The ciphering of premier AL pitching to the "senior circuit" (which I assume they call the NL because Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux play there) has kept on going with the Harden/Sabathia deals. Let's look at the effect these trades may have on how the division that's tight at the top and flat out horrible at the bottom. In order of the current standings:

Cubbies (58-40):
The lovable losers are at it again, streaking out to the best NL record in the first half and doing it with style. How have they done it? The obvious answer is hitting. Going into today's action they're hitting .280/.357/.442 AS A TEAM, which is crazy-go-nuts, and leading the NL in all three. They're also tops in the NL in runs scored with 518, which is 26 ahead of the second-place Phillies (who swing a good piece of lumber themselves).

Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee are mashing as usual. The big surprise is rookie catcher Geovany Soto and his 16 dingers (my fantasy team would like to say domo arigato Mr. G. Soto). The kid slugged .652 over a full AAA season last year, so he could actually keep it up. Fukudome made a big slash early but his splits have gone down every month of the season, so you have to keep your expectations low for the rest of the season as he gets used to this side of the Pacific. The big wild card is Alfonoso Soriano coming back this week. Alfie had an insane May and a very good June before getting hurt. If he gets back in stride with his pre-injury pace, this team still hits with the best of 'em.

But we're talking trades, right? And the bad news for the rest of the division is that the team with the lowest BA against, 2nd lowest ERA, and 3rd lowest WHIP in the NL just picked up one James Richard Harden, who is scary good at pitching. It's impressive enough that they've been getting solid performances from Ryan "The Dump Truck" Dempster (11-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Kerry Wood (24 saves, 1.01 WHIP, 0 exploded body parts), and Ted Lilly (would you believe me if I told you he was top-10 in the NL in K's. Go ahead, look it up. I'll wait.... Back yet? Yeah I know, it's weird).

Throw in Zambrano and they've got 2 top-end pitchers, a few other solid rotation guys, a very good bullpen, and the best offense in the NL. There's a reason north-siders are so confident. I can't wait to see what's going to go horribly wrong to derail this. I've got 100:1 money down on a polio breakout in the clubhouse.

Milwaukee Brewers (56-43):
When the Brew-Crew started winning games last year, it was cute... novel... and nobody believed it would last. They faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs, but they stayed mostly in tact and the young players are developing. Ryan Braun is a grown-ass man, following up his insane rookie season with very good numbers again (.896 OPS). After a sluggish start, Prince Fielder's splits have been getting better and better all year. He won't reach 50 dingers again, but 35-40 are definitely in reach. JJ Hardy is having his best year yet and is EXPLODING in July, with a 1.173 OPS, 7 HRs, 15 runs, and 15 RBI. Then there's Corey Hart, who's been cosistent for the whole season. That's 4 guys between 24-26, hitting their stride in late July. The Brewers are young. The Brewers are good. This is not news to anyone. This IS the news:That's right, there's ANOTHER fat man in Wisconsin. The thought of these two men at the same complimentary buffet must have Marriott staff shaking in their boots all across the country. I love this trade for this team. Despite having the NL All-Star starting pitcher on their roster, they've been around the middle of the NL pack in all the major pitching categories. Manny Parra has pitched well, but he's walked a ton of batters and he's too young to depend on as your second best pitcher.

Now the 1-2 punch of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia backed up by Parra, Dave Bush, and Seth McClung, they have a group of pitchers they can feel okay about. They'd be in good shape if they could just start avoiding crappy ex-Red Sox pitchers. Seriously... Eric Gagne, Julian Tavarez, Jeff Suppan... what were you THINKING? But the fact they've stayed so close to the Cubs despite how dominant Chi-town's been statistically, and that they're getting better every month (currently 6 straight wins), means they've got a serious chance in this race.

St. Louis Cardinals (57-45):
The story of the year in the NL is how the Cards have stayed in a tough NL Central race despite having, as many love to point out, a fairly craptastical roster. Of course they still have Poo-Holes, and he is still one of the scariest hitters in baseball (.356/.468/.600), but they're also depending on a Molina brother, which is never a good sign. Sure they're 5th in the NL in runs, but do you know who's 4th? That's right, the Pirates of Pittsburgh... and that's not working out so hot for THEM. They're getting very respectable years out of a slew of guys: Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel are all OPS'ing over .800, plus Skip Shumaker and the before-mentioned Molina brother are over .750. The bats have come alive this year and that's carried this team.

The pitching on the other hand is not so hot. When your staff ace is Kyle Lohse, even with as great of a year as he's having, you probably don't have a great rotation. Brandon Looper, Joel Piniero, and Todd Wellemeyer round out the starters, with Mitchell Boggs getting some starts as well, and they haven't been pretty to watch. Ryan Franklin has filled the closer role admirably after Isringausen's fall from grace, and Russ Springer and Kyle McClellan have had great seasons with sub-3.00 ERA's, but the Cards still rank last in BAA by relievers and dead last in bullpen WHIP.

And there's the problem. In a division where all the contenders can hit, the Cards were the only team that didn't go out and get another proven starter to bolster their rotation. And if Harden and Sabathia can help quiet some of the career years St. Louis's hitters are having, the Cards could be out of the picture by late August. They can only hope acquiring a highly touted A's pitcher will work out as well for the Cubs as it did for them with Mulder.

Cincinnati Reds (49-53):
They've got some great young talent both with pitchers and hitters, but all that talent still needs to mature. If they can continue to develop Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, hang onto Brandon Philips, and somehow convince Dusty Baker that it doesn't matter if Adam Dunn is hitting .237 as long as he's OPS'ing .934, they could have a formidable lineup in short time.

Pitching is a different issue for the Reds. Edinson Volquez has been amazing, which is why you don't hear anybody screaming that they're idiots for trading Josh Hamilton away. But Aaron Harang is having an anomaly of a bad year, while Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto have shown that they both have great stuff, but are still a ways off from knowing how to use it.

Pittsburgh Pirates (46-54):
The Pirates are not alone in last place in the division right now. Good for them. Call me when Ian Snell stops being a horrible pitcher (my fantasy team curses you Mr. Snellington). Pirates pitchers are dead last in team ERA, team BAA, and team WHIP... and it's not even close in any of them (5.26 ERA to 2nd worst Colorado's 4.88). If Richie Sexson could only hit against lefties who play for the Pirates, he'd be the next home run king. Actually, could we set that up? That'd be pretty hilarious

Houston Astros (46-54)
Houston Texas has a Major League Baseball baseball team named the Astros. Their best hitter looks like Fat Elvis Presley. They were in the World Series 3 seasons ago. They will not be in it this season.


PREDICTIONS:
Who's going to win the NL Central? I'll give you a hint: they love sausage and beer. No, it's not your mom (BURN!), it's the Milwaukee Brewers! The boost they get from CC, along with their coming-of-age hitters, and the inevitable injury to Rich Harden (bonus: Kerry Wood's on the DL now!) means that they'll catch the Cubs and take the crown. Chicago will still win the Wild Card, but their beer shower will be bittersweet when they realize they're showering in Miller, the official Beer Sponsor of the Division Champ Brewers.